TA can't predict that a large order will be placed now and not in 15 min, 1 hour, etc

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by crgarcia, May 26, 2010.

  1. joe4422

    joe4422

    If there were simple rules to follow that worked, then every one would trade them and be rich.

    Indicators are generally worth less. I'm not sure why they were even created. I imagine it mostly the Jack Hershey's of the world.


    For me TA works, so long as your winners are bigger than your losers. Sure you can get 50/50 chance of winning by flipping a coin, but it's not 50/50 if you're target is 3 times bigger than your stop. TA can help you to determine when and where a bigger move is possible, what target to aim for, where to get entry, etc...

    More often than not intra day price will react pretty hard off certain moving averages for example. Okay, it might go right through it, but if it's about 50/50 and you get big moves off it when it happens, then you can make money trading it, and it's much better than a coin flip.


    IMO you could take all the indicators and put them in the trash.
     
    #21     May 29, 2010
  2. Redneck

    Redneck

    As I see it…

    TA – reflects
    Traders – anticipate
    Idiots – predict


    As for TA being worthless – the choice is yours – chose carefully


    RN
     
    #22     May 29, 2010
  3. siki13

    siki13

    Its ok to be wrong about something(specially about tough thing like trading) ,we all have some views that are not exactly based on reality.
    But i`am feeling really sad when you`r insisting to emphasize
    your wrongness in every other post you write.
    Its like a gut wrenching feeling you get when you see some
    crippled person crossing the street.
    I`m begging you please stop writing this stuff, for my sake.
     
    #23     May 29, 2010
  4. I bought a Yugo once and it was a piece of crap car. All cars are pieces of crap and should be abolished.

    Honey, I'm sorry I just dropped our son on his head.
     
    #24     May 29, 2010
  5. heypa

    heypa

    It ain't how you get in. It's how you get out that counts.
    You have to manage both.There are many ways to to both. To be successful they have to mesh.Both must adapt to changing market conditions.IMHO
    Call the process what you will.Labels don't change anything.
     
    #25     May 29, 2010
  6. the answer to why TA is worthless is........

    trader a "omg man i so see this resistance, if we break it it's gunna rip"

    trader b "hell yea man, you see that reverse S&H wedge quadruple bottom failure break out? lol how could anyone think short?"

    trader a "damn yo big offer at 50.00, once he lifts its over"

    mean while 100 shares print 50.01 outside market.

    trader a & b "I'm long a million shares"

    stock pulls in back to 49.80

    trader a & b " shit man I had to hit out"

    2 hours later stock is at 51.00
     
    #26     Aug 1, 2010
  7. The reason most people "THINK" Technical Analysis is worthless is they have no clue what modern Technical Analysis is or how to use it.

    Your examples aren't of Technical Analysis but it is sophomorically cute.
     
    #27     Aug 1, 2010
  8. TA indeed IS worthless.
    TA can't predict large orders, placed at random times.

    TA is only promoted by commission hungry brokers, so you overtrade.
     
    #28     Aug 3, 2010
  9. bone

    bone

    If good technical analysis and statistical quant skills are useless, then I have no way to logically explain my good fortune in many different market spaces over an extended period of time.
     
    #29     Aug 3, 2010
  10. Josef K

    Josef K

    Really? So, given two daytraders who use TA as their primary tool, one with a successful ten-year track record, and one who has lost money each year for ten years straight, who would you rather have manage your money? If you really believe that there is no skill in daytrading, then your reply should be that it doesn't matter, and you should be just as willing to let the losing trader manage your money as you would be to let the successful trader manage it.

    So, what would you really do if presented with this choice?
     
    #30     Aug 4, 2010