what you are missing, tycoon, is that everyone is not interpreting TA the same way. hence, TA traders could have pushed the market above the hedge fund's buy line. best, surfer
and so it's good to diversify among systems or setups. Is it yet another thread to prove that there is something wrong with a purely probablistic game without saying the dirty word 'probability'? Once you realize that the game is probabilistic in nature, you should not expect to win it all the time. So what's the point, where is any statistics to show that TA works now worse than in the past? Stop-losses are still as valid as ever, at least to me.
If you focus all your attention on TA or fundamental analysis, or any trade entry system, in the long run you will be dissapointed. Trade selection is only 1/3rd of the picture, the other parts are position sizing and trade exit, which are both just as important as trade entry.
So, essentialy you are saying that fib retracement/extension levels in and of themselves are irrelevant???
"purely probablistic game" The "make up your own words" thread is on another forum I think. This discussion is on technicalistic analysistation. Take a hike, Wally. Let the flaming continue
Perhaps they are only irrelevant/meaningless to you because of the angle in which you view them? Perhaps if you were to see them as more of a 'map' vs. a predictive tool -- then you may find more use in them? Perhaps not, just some food for thought... BTW; Wasn't trying to suck you into a 'flamefest' -- was just curious to see where your 'at'...
If by "map" you're referring to Magee's map, I'd rather focus on the territory - price and volume - than rely on the sort of maps drawn by indicators, at least until somebody can show statistical significance to Fibonacci levels that are independent of previous price support and resistance. And I know you weren't trying to draw me into a flamefest. Your posts so far have been pretty adult . But Fib is a hot issue amongst indicator people. Saying they (Fib levels) are irrelevant is like telling somebody his children are ugly. --Db
Actually by 'map' I wasn't referring to Magee -- been years since I have read that book... I like the way you use the term 'territory' I too focus on price and volume as my only 'indictor', but draw 'maps' using S/R, Fib Levels, MA's, Balance Points, etc to get a feel for the 'terrain' I am working with... "Can TA become self defeating??" -----> Most definitely if one forgets that the 'map is NOT the territory'!
----------------------------------------- No, but you might be on the alert for some needed adjustments; like substituting a 21 for a 20 period Moving average [& discretion.] Noticed Price Headly requires a two day close above 20 day MA. Fortunately many institutions dont even look at the above info ..