hi... can any of you tradestation pros out there do a backtest on this system... it sounds like it might have some potential , even if i totallt doubt the 93% win factor.. anyway let us not "throw the baby out with the bathwater".
I'll learn to count if you learn to READ!! 09-02-03 09:50 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from alterego: such a large range, probably true on not getting stopped out. few questions: 1. if you are looking for breakouts, why just a 3 point target? 2. what happens if you get filled but your target isn't reached by the close. Do you hold onto it and run the trailing stop overnight? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- That's a very good question. The answer is quite simple. The initial 3 point target will allow me to exit the trade atleast break-even. Break-even = half a point. The sell limit order is not placed!!!!!! It is merely a guide to move the stop loss to break-even once the 3 point target is reached. I'ts clear that YOU DON'T TRADE!!! If you did you would see that I had more than enough time to enter my trade and trail my stop WITHOUT getting stopped out! Just look @ a 5min, 1min, or 15 min chart and you will clearly see that. Furthermore, Let's say I did take the initial 3pt target.....I still would have cleared the trade!! I started this thread to help those seeking to learn how to trade not to start an argument. But if you would like we can compare results at the end and see who's the better trader? Start your thread with your realtime trades and lets see if you have what it takes? That's what I thought!!!
Actually waiting to place an additional buy stop limit is a good way to miss profitable entries that jump right through the entry price, not a way to maximize the probability of getting filled. Placing a second buy stop limit at the same price means you are doing stop and reverse trading. Waiting to place the reverse portion of the SAR doesn't mean it isn't SAR trading.
Sure, 1st this is only one of the systems that I trade. the 93% accuracy rate is Probably not true. I'TS PROBABLY HIGHER!! I don't want to be to outlandish but as I stated earlier I intend to prove my statement with realtime post. You cant expect anybody to believe you if you cant prove it with realtime post. I know that It will take some time for many who are unfamiliar with this technique but I expected as much. I tend to move very quickly and as much as I can I will try to explain as we go along. It is difficult to answer questions when the market is open because unlike some people I'm in the market. Don't give up stay with me and you will get it.
I appreciate your comments and your scrutiny. That kind of sober mindedness is what is lacking on messsage boards. I will try to be more clear in the future. Remember, Im not an author and I will try to disclose as much as possible so long as it doesnt disstract me from the market. Let's keep it clean.
You bring up a great point! 1st lets clear up something. You are WRONG!!! You have to forgive me remember I used to be a Futures Broker and I specialized in Stock Index Futures & Options so when you say SAR on the order desk that means the following. Example: Sell 1 ESU3 @ 1004.75 Stop Limit Buy 2 ESU3 @ 1015.00 Stop Limit As you can see by the above example you have created a continuous "In the Market" situation. Once your buy stop is triggerd your short is liquidated and "AUTOMATICALLY" placed in a Long posits @ 1015.00 . The market doesnt care if you have to go to the bathroom or if an emergency arrises. That is the reason I like to go flat is that it gives me time to make a decision based on changing market conditions (as well as personal). Yes, there is some descretion with this system however, there are rules. That is all I can say for now on the subject without getting ahead of myself. Tommorow I will post the next step in the "Volatility BreakOut System".
Thanks for the vote of confidence. I dont know if you will be able to because on Tradestation you have a limitation in that you can test on minute, day ,hour etc but you can't program descretionary rules nor can you obtain premarket data specifically giving you the "High & Low" @ 9:30am EST. I've looked and I havent found a data provider yet that can do it. Until then you must manually write it down.
T-Rex: Then it seemed to me that once you were stopped out at 1015.00 at 12:19 EST, you WERE flat and then waited for a pull back before placing your 2nd stop-limit order of the day to buy at the same price of 1015.00, which didnât get elected until 2:43 EST. It just wasnât an IMMEDIATE stop-and-reverse of your position. My questions then are: 1) How much of a pull back do you allow before you decided to enter (or not to enter) that 2nd 1015.00 buy stop-limit order? 2) Would your stop loss order then be at 1004.75 again? 3) How did you decide to exit your long position at 1022.00 (7 points later). It looked like you either had a really tight trailing stop toward the end of the day or there was some other criteria that prompted the exit to occur. Thanks Kermit
Another great question. Unlike sum it is obvious that you are paying attention. Secret #2 The market gives you a high probability on direction without charts or technical indicators. A true Professional Trader knows how to look at price action without a chart and determine where to trade for the day. @ 10:30 am EST the professional money enters the market and will determine market direction until lunchtime. then the market will chop sideways until 1:30 - 2:00pm then momentum will usually pick up and around 3:00pm a new leg up or down is created i.e. (A new high or new low will be posted). That leaves 2 major trading oportunities each trading day. In short, if the morning high or low is not taken out by 2pm EST then look out .....here comes the reversal. I admit today was full of surprises and not a typical day. Normally, you would stick with the prevailing trend but today was a real surprise. As you can see today was a net loss anyway you slice it. I think that tommorow you will understand more of the technique. Thanks for asking.
T-REX, What got you out of the second trade? And how do you calculate that 93% win rate? I will grant you that today was a rotten day for this type of system. We got a classic rinse and wash on the number.