Thanks for your questions. I'll let you all hash out the win/loss rate scenerio. I've gotta go. you may continue to post and I will answer all of your questions and address all of your comments on Monday. Have a great weekend!!!!! p.s. and thanks again to all of those who have participated in this weeks dialogue.
I stand corrected.... as for you t-rex.....how do you get a 187% win rate.... Please explain... Michael B.
Today was a -2.50 loss today so now to get a win rate of 93% what would we need? The day trade exits at MOC...which was a loss for today... Friday. Michael B. P.S. short entry at 1019.75 ....... exit at close 1022.25 = -2.50
41 straight winners from here on I would say there's a 93.93% chance, this is not going to happen -FastTrader
T-REX, Thanks for the response. Everything is clear now Something is odd about your above statement and a few others... If you have a 93% rate...why do you use the word hope and I'm either an IDIOT or a GENIUS??? For some reason...you don't seem to sure about your methodology via those above words. Why is that??? Further...if you know it doesn't matter what you do in your journal for the unbelievers... (so far you don't have the uncanny ability to correctly forecast price movement) Why bother trying to prove something to them in the first place? You did say your journal is all about proving something. Now...for those that do believe in your trading ability... so far you have not given them anything to believe in nor to go tell their pals to come watch this guy post his trades in realtime. Right now...the odds are stack very high against you... Also...your going to need to pick up the pace with your trading... here's why. I truly don't believe your journal will last long enough for you to prove your point. You've made 3 losing trades this week (I've excluded the profitable in retrospect trade). Also...for volatility breakout/breakdown traders...not every day with produce a trade signal. Therefore...lets pretend you'll have one day per week that won't be tradable (no signal, computer problems, personal reasons or whatever). Lets say based on those 3 trades...you continue averaging about 3 trades per week... To have +40 consecutive winners (93%)...your journal must continue for the next 13.33 weeks. Today is Sept 5th and you'll most likely prove to everybody your right about the 93% almost mid December based on 3 trades per week... unless you pick up the pace in your trading. Therefore...its rare to see a trading journal last that long here at EliteTrader.com Simply...I truly hope you can prove your methodology before you grow tired of your journal as so many others before you have done when trying to prove something. Out of curiousity...you promise something via the below statement... When will you discuss those trading secrets??? The below statement is also odd... What have you accomplish so far when it comes to helping as many traders as possible??? Something else...you below statement about the number 10 caught my eye... Why 10 trades...why not 7 or 5??? Will you continue your trading journal if you hit 10 losing trades in a roll??? Last of all...back to those secrets of trading... the stuff you've called secrets aren't secrets. They've been posted many times before here at EliteTrader.com The above may be new info for someone new to trading...but not new info for someone that's been trading a few months nor for someone that's been reading many of the informative message posts here at EliteTrader.com Therefore...where's the real secrets...something that hasn't been discussed here at ET a dozen or more times before??? Yet...I will give you credit for some comments you've made that may have shed light on how some orders are filled...although you never referred to such as secrets. I also like the fact that you make use (trading tool) of the all session globex info for the Eminis...many traders don't. In my opinion...its key info that shouldn't be ignored (resistance high and support low). Another question about the below statement... What do you mean by saying... I thought that by creating a journal in realtime would help many a trader looking for a robust methodology. I've now read many pages (not all) in your journal... I'm exhausted because I have many more questions in my head. Good luck and I hope you prove your 93%... Heck..even if you got only 70%...that's better than most that trades with real money. And don't jump on me about if I have a journal or if I post my trades in realtime... I do. I'll check back in early December to see how your doing so far (sarcasm). Time for me to start enjoying the weekend. Bye. P.S. I do consider the above constructive questions that merits an explanation. However...its your journal and you can choose to answer or ignore whom ever you want. NihabaAshi
T-REX is delusional. He has done this a couple of other times posting as ABHAY etc. He comes up with a half baked idea. Back tests it manually for a couple of months, then comes on ET and emphatically announces his high percentage, professional, robust trading system. The systems are all losers and he pretends they are winners. Why someone would do this - I will leave to a psychiatrist.
Monday 08 Sept 2003 Still holding Friday's short @ 1019.75 with protective stop loss @ 1031.00. Technicals: Market is still short-term overbought. Bullish momentum with overhead resistance @ 1029.75. Support is @ 982.00 We need a close above 1029.75 or below 982.00 to clear up market direction. Spillover Overnight numbers 1025.25 Resistance 1021.25 Support Thoughts: I will probably short again @ 1025.75 bringing the total to 2 shorts making it a Net short @ 1022.75. I wil wait and see how the 1st hour shapes up.