Sorry. I hope that our friend/genosse Scientist will make his Journal - like Mark did. PS. I can't understand why you think that the market knows the (eco) news before they happen or get published. The news moves the markets. PPS. Great thread, T-Rex.
It is not that the market already knows but rather the market already factors in the most likely outcome and prices tend to move in that direct. So in that regard the market already factors in the news i.e. government reports, earnings, etc. Again The only news that would change the present course of the market would be something like madd cow or 9/11 in which a parabolic shift would occur in the opposite direction. Note most extremes are corrected in a "V" like fashion.
Well, I suppose that if all the eco news from now on was negative, the bull market would be over pretty soon. Off course it is the BIG NEWS (surprises) which moves the market. PS. So you must invest in a Bloomberg or Reuter screen...
T-Rex, tried again at home and the links work. My work computer probably did not have the right software to read it. Thanks for the fast reply.
Nah, but I'm not stupid, I'll turn on CNBC or listen to Bloomberg radio on the internet when I know that a report is due out. Real life example: When I was a Future Broker back in Jan 2000 I was debating the idea of putting on some short ES trades for a client. The market was topped out intra day and it seemed like a great play to pick up about 15 points. But for some reason I just could not make the decision to pull the trigger. My gut instinct was telling me "NO.NO.NO". Wait not now! I'm glad that I listened to my gut instinct because within about 2 minutes of me getting back to my desk after discussion the matter with one of my fellow brokers..............I could not believe my eyes......"Holy ************************!!!! My fellow broker shouted at me........Did you see that? Look at your screen! To my surprise the NQ rallied about 600 points, the ES rallied about 110 points , and the Dow moved up over 600 points!!! all in the matter of 2 minutes. Point of the story: Even if you don't have Bloomberg on, the truth of the matter is already factored into the price and only those that were "long" the market made money that day. Those that were short got "DESTROYED"! You did not need a realtime news datafeed to tell you that something very unexpected had just taken place. The FED lowered interest rates without warning and in between meetings! What a day that was!
OK, I will start a thread called "DAX Scalping Discussion" in the "Eurex Trading" forum, and we can discuss things there. Anybody who has questions, can ask them in that thread. So as to leave T-REX in peace. The thread is now open: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=26299 S
Fine story. Maybe we also have insider trading before the big eco news? I don't know if it's illegal? Who should be the insider? Greenspan?