I'm happy with my stop at 15 and the potential for a new low. So I won't do anything unless we make a new low, at which time I will move the stop on the whole position to 110 31/32.
boink. oh well. I'm pretty happy with everything I did. Chances for a new low are really small at this point.
The day session(pit) recent high for the current multiweek up move is: 165 for the 10yr and 220 for the 5yr. But the overnight sessions have twice hit a high of 185 for the 10yr and 250 for the 5yr. I would be very surprised if this current upleg ended without the day sessions(pit) at least matching those overnight numbers if not exceeding them, eventually.
NO, eventually. may not happen, I would just be surprised if it didn't. may take PCE or employment report or similar.
I agree with you then. I just counted six days since 15 Apr where the 110 220-260 support zone turned the price around. On the flip side there have only been 3 tries beaten back at the highs. Path of least resistance is up!
these days, i'd actually favor a 2s/10s steepener in puts out of all things. it can be done in green midcurves vs 10s too. if the carry is right, it's a winner - i can't imagine 2s/10s getting flatter and can't really see fed moving too fast, so losses in short flattener in puts aren't really a problem.
I've been watching a couple folks have some success with the 2/30 spread on now, don't know how long that is going to last for tho.. FWIW.
I'm trailing the 60m bars with a long right now and we are nearing the top of the channel. If tommorow we get a LrH near the top of the zone I might short it, otherwise i'll let this thing break out if it really wants to.