pete: That's a very good idea. I'm looking at some daily and weekly charts here. Here are some scenarios: 1) Worst case scenario: It opens up at 112, which is an ENTIRE 1pt move or 32 32nds. Then I'm screwed. That's like $10000 down/contract. Highly unlikely though still possible. Thinking about it makes one nervous. But gotta be rational. 2) Best case scenario. It opens gap down since yesterday was an overextended move on the daily chart. And Monday the equity market recovers a little and people sell some ZNs to bank profits. 3) Intermediate case: It opens and trades a narrow range day. I think this is likely. It bounces around. I'll just cover to make a little or scratch the trade or possibly lose a little. I think with this scenario I would be ale to breathe and relax. But I still have this nagging fear of the gap up. Because of all the fear in the stock market. People rush into US Treasuries for safety. misc
Sorry didn't explain the 2:1 NOB. Could be interesting next week with inflationary data. Couple locals were talking to Rick Santelli last Thursday and they were asking the questions, "Why is the yield curve as flat as it is?". A couple very interesting answers that included: the long end (10 yrs and 30 yrs) of the curve is right about the economy in that there is no inflation and growth may slow down at some point, wherein the yield curve will become INVERTED and that has led to recession shortly thereafter every time that has occurred. This GM stuff is certainly contributing to the flight to quality aspect, along with global demand for long-term assets (pension/insurance funds trying to match long-term 30 year plus liabilities), not to mention Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could bring the housing market down. People are taking about one Fed move out now, but if PPI or CPI are way above, then Eurodollars and Two-year Notes sell off the hardest because they have led this rally higher in terms of yield, but look for the long end to not be as scared about inflation. Who knows, look for a continuation on Sunday night higher, Japan started it on Friday with the Nikkei being down 200 points, they will probably start it again.
Now all you need is to turn the scenarios into actionable instructions... "if the market opens in this range, I will place these orders...." and "after the open, if price moves into this range, I will modify/place orders as follows.." etc. etc. After you get all of that written down, your fears will evaporate. Also, this type of thing will help you make the most money in the good scenarios. p.s. Actually worst case would be "locked limit-up" ... (and vice-versa for best case), but of course they're the easiest to handle (since the trader can't do anything). (I couldn't find anything about the limits for the ZN, anyone know? Also, anyone know the last time it happened??)
I'd say the best case for your position would be a gap up and eventual selloff into the close, just depends on what your pain threshhold is. If the stock market opens way down, this will probably be the case.
illiquid: that's one very real possibility I've entertained. I have several chart patterns in my head that I'm waiting to see unfold. If it's a runaway market then I'll cover ASAP. But if it's gap up then slowly drift down then I'll bite the bullet and wait for it to come down. But I hope wouldn't be too much pain! misc
Tell me you are sitting @ your computer ALL weekend waiting for Sunday night's opening! It's only $1000/contract per point, if these gapped up to 113 we are only talking $2000/car. There is more to trading T-note futures than scalping 4 ticks @ a time. Good luck with your position
Dunno, but I have a feeling it may not be the best situation to begin one's first attempt at "trading around" such a position. We're seeing movement in certain markets we haven't seen in a long time, maybe just cut and run and lick your wounds this time around and save the trading around lesson for a different occasion? Not that I'm not interested in a discussion of that strategy, I know many pros can pull it off but I've always made a mess of things when I've tried it. Would you care to put yourself in misc's shoes and give an example as to how you would handle this situation? Any thoughts greatly appreciated.
ONLY $1000/contract or point? WTF? I don't know what kind of risk management you have. 1pt is a big move in treasury markets/bond futures... 1pt is a big risk. I'm hoping to get out at worst half or less than 1pt. maybe 10/32nd at most...