The price and volume view is that today's rally was simply a continuation of the uptrend in place since early April. The low of the day was in the support zone around the previous swing high of 112 15/320 on May 5. On the intermediate (months) term the market is now in the congestion zone 111-114 established between August of last year and Feb 2005. March and April was a test underneath that zone which failed since the market is back in the zone. Those Feb lows were significant because they were higher than the May 2004 lows, which is a tip off to a possible change in the long term downtrend in place since mid 2003. If the next high is above 114 then the long term trend has changed to up. If not, it looks like we'll be in a hinge which usually gives birth to a large move one way or another at the end of it. Either way, I don't see why so many traders on ET seem to be expecting the bottom to fall out. The short term trend is up and the medium and long term is unresolved at this point. On a personal note I am taking some time off from intraday trading to polish up my methodologies. I think the ZN is fine for intraday trading of course, I just need to polish things up a little bit. I had a good streak the last two weeks and am pretty motivated. At the same time I'm a little worried about my use of size and just want to iron things out.
fwiw..... *** BOND MARKET RECAP 5/23/2005 June Bonds finished up 0-23 at 116-22, 0-07 off the high and 0-31 up from the low. June 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished up 0-155 at 112-170, 0-050 off the high and 0-190 up from the low. The Treasury market exploded aggressively on news that the US Treasury would reduce the amount of Notes auctioned for the first reduction in over a year. In other words, tax revenues appear to be up and the need for supply is down. We also suspect that Treasury prices were lifted by predictions that the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes will possibly hint at a coming pause in the US rate hike posture. With the US Dollar down sharply in the face of disconcerting European economic forecasts it stands to reason that some in the marketplace were moving to factor in a less aggressive forward Fed stance toward interest rates.
looks like just quiet Monday morning fun testing last weeks levels. 4.145 yield levels. '025 on 5yr sep futures and 10yr futures are not usually as exact but overshoot a little. look how it bounced nicely from those levels.
You've got oil cracking along as well -- inflationary... It also may be that people are still unwinding the long side idea that the Fed is "almost" done...