A nebulous concept at best. Over the past year, 48.8% of the trading days were up while 50.0% were up for T days. So I guess you can say that there is a slight bias, 1%, just based on the close.
...and that is exactly what my research shows. The question is: Is there any way how we can exploit this information? Well, I also started a thread about cup and handle patterns in this subforum. Out of the 5 days when we had this pattern this year, 3 of them were on Tuesdays. See where I am going with this? If there is a decent selloff on a T-day in the first 2-3 hours, based on this theory we can expect with a high probability a rally or at least a decent bounce most of the time...
I generally like your ideas Pek, but one flaw I see with your current test is that you're doing it on data from a period where for 4-1/2 of the last 5-6 months the market rallied 50%! I would think this might skew the results toward the positive.
I thought about that. The rest of my charts are on a different harddrive, so until I hook that up, I don't have access to them. But I will also check a bearish period and compare the two. In the long run I still expect a slightly positive outcome for T-days... One other reason I am doing this manually and slowly, because I also checked for the rest of the week to see if there is a statistically signifficant preference for rally or selloff on a particular day... Here is the Summary of the last 5 months: Tuesdays: 7 up, 6 down, 9 variable Thursdays: 11 up, 6 down, 4 variable So Tuesdays have no statistical signifficance, but Thursdays (specially if tomorrow is an up day) are more likely to go up then down with a high probability...
We have a huge up day so far, so the final tally for Thursdays: 12 up, 6 down, 4 variable You were sayin'? I think you should have waited until the research's conclusion is drawn and the theory is either busted or proved. Me thinks you talked too soon....
It really doesn't matter how the day ends, had you been long from the morning or last night, you would be in profit and there was a signifficant upmove already.