T-day expectancy

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by Pekelo, Jul 29, 2009.

  1. Pekelo


    The T-day theory states that Tuesdays and Thursdays are more likely to be up days then down, thus going long on these days with decent money management should be profitable. Even when they are not a clear up days, there should still be a decent upmove during those days.
    T-day theory has been around for a while (it has been statistically proven), on ET it has been promoted by Volente, so a big thanks for him.

    Since I am using a slight modification, thus the new research...

    In this thread I am going to examine how well it has worked in the last 5-6 months. I am doing the stats manually, judging each day by the chart, not just by the closing price. So if there is a signifficant upmove on a T-day, that would be considered as a positive result. (if you don't like my way of doing it, it is fine, I do it this way anyway,) :)

    So far I have done April:

    Tuesdays: 3 up 1 down

    Thursdays: 2 up, 3 varied (meaning signifficant movements in both directions)

    So based on just one month, the T-day theory is heavily favored...

  2. :confused:

    I had a lot of respect for you till I read this post.
  3. I still have a lot of respect for Pekelo's analytical abilities, but the post is a goober for sure. :D
  4. Pekelo


    Note: For a oneliner you don't need to quote the whole original post.

    Let's see May:

    Tuesdays: 1 up, 1 down, 2 variable

    Thursdays: 2 down, 2 up

    So May was a wash, a coinflip as the theory goes...


    Tuesdays: 1 up, 2 down, 2 variable

    Thursdays: 3 up, 1 variable

    In June although Tuesdays were a wash, Thursdays favored rallies...
  5. Please elaborate on this or provide something to back up this statement. Why are you manually going month by month if you say it is already "statistically proven"? I don't think going by hand through a few months is going to make your case but if you have the time for it, more power to you. If you have other statistics please share. Put me in the T-day skeptic column ...
  6. Pekelo


    Quote from brocklanders:

    Please elaborate on this or provide something to back it up.

    I already explained half of this in the first post.

    1. Since I am using a variant of the theory, so I need new research. I am happy when there is a signifficant upmove on these days, the definition of signifficant is at least 8 ES points for me. (I know, arbitrary, but I am working on a strategy here)

    2. I really don't care how the market behaved 5-10 years ago, if it doesn't apply anymore. So a 10 years old statistics is although interesting, but could be irrelevant for me today.

    Volente already provided the link to the stats on a blog I think in the ES Journal thread, do a search, I am busy with this right now.

    The other reason why I go by hand because I have an idea, how to exploit this... :cool:
  7. the1


    Trade what happens -- problem solved.
  8. Pekelo


    July with one Thursday still to go:

    Tuesdays: 1 down, 3 variable

    Thursdays: 2 up, 1 down, 1 variable

    Sligthly positive for the theory, tomorrow could make a difference...


    Tuesdays: 2 up, 1 down, 2 variable

    Thursdays: 2 up, 2 down
  9. Since 1950 there were 14987 trading days with 53.2% of them positive.
    There were 6060 T days of which 54.2% were positive.

    Where is Vol, didn’t he bring this theory up? I thought the point was that there is a good bull run during a T day, not that it has something to do with the net change at the end of the day.
  10. Pekelo


    That's what I have been saying, see the opening post:

    #10     Jul 29, 2009