T-bond now in historical high, how much higher can it go?

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by blnbr, Dec 18, 2011.

  1. blnbr


    T-bond price is now in historical high. Let's assume recession is coming and the stock market is falling in the coming months, how much higher can T-bond still go based on the fundamental analysis?
  2. I would suggest looking at the past 20 years of Japan's bond performance for clues on "might".
  3. as high as the bulls keep shoving it........

    1.50 would be nice

  4. Curr CTD yield is smth like 2.37. JL98 (the comparable JGB, Sep 2027 maturity) yields 1.48, so that's smth like 90bps. If my arithmetic is correct, that's worth arnd 15 points.
  5. SREC


    Whoever is buying US Government, I just do not understand. It must be a lemming effect. It's practically guaranteed to fail, either due to default or inflation.
  6. blnbr


    Hi Random, Could you provide a link for the Japan bond and its historical price chart, Thanks!
  7. So this is one of those cases where the whole it is stupid and you know better, right?
  8. sle


    "You not a true macro trader if you have not lost money shorting JGBs!"(c) my Ex-boss from BT
  9. maybe its China looking for US to default this way they can take over in one swoop no war or anything...
  10. zdreg


    srec is right but is ignoring one of the fundamental laws of markets.
    – “The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!”…
    #10     Dec 19, 2011