System Trading Journal

Nonsense can and does show up anywhere at anytime.

 

Exited with trailing stop both contracts @ 888.75 for 6.5 point gain per contract. Will wait for possible reversal today.

 

"Nonsense can and does show up anywhere at anytime."

QED

~EC

 

Thanks!

 

Ouch, order entry error and missed my short entry @ 887. Looks like I might underperform my system today.


My system says short @ 887 with stops @ 894.50, hold til close. Unfortunately I'm not on board. It's amazing it takes 5 hours to make 7 points going up and only 10 minutes going down. Could've doubled my day so far.

 

11/08/2002 RETROACTIVE UPDATE

Trade 1: Went short at 904.00 assuming follow through from yesterdays sell down. The unanimous vote on the UN Resolution drove the market higher and I reversed at a loss of (4.50 x 2 x 50 = $450)

Trade 2: Went Long at 908.50 after flipping on the previous trade, assuming momentum was shifting to the bulls, but was stopped out at a loss of (8.75 x 2 x 50 = $875)

I believe the news event caused my erroneous reversal, but you can never be sure. The hard part about a system is you have to stick with it, even though you think you know better; otherwise you’re a discretionary system trader. Luckily cut my size in half today.

ACTUAL
Daily gain/(loss) ($1,344.60) (inc. $19.20 commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($5,321) -5.321%
Daily ES Points = (13.25) per contract
Monthly ES Points = (32.25) per contract

SYSTEM
Daily gain/(loss) ($2,439.20) (net of $39.20 commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($3,331.80) –3.332%
Daily ES Points = (13.25) per contract
Monthly ES Points = (22.50) per contract

 

11/12/02

Trade 1: Went long on retest of pivot +2 @ 882.25. Held with trailing stop and sold both contracts @ 888.75 for a gain of (6.5 x 2 x 50 = $650)

Missed the second trade because of not transmitting my Sell Stop @ 887, for a potential gain of 5.5 x 2 x 50 = $550

ACTUAL
Daily gain/(loss) $630.40 (inc. $19.20 commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($4,690) -4.69%
Daily ES Points = 6.50 per contract
Monthly ES Points = (25.75) per contract

SYSTEM
Daily gain/(loss) $1,161.20 (net of $39.20 commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($2,170.60) –2.171%
Daily ES Points = 12.00 per contract
Monthly ES Points = (10.50) per contract

 

11/13/2002

No trades today. Don’t trade in the direction of the gap, so after the market dropped the first hour I figured the day was over. Didn’t realize we’d get a strong reversal so early so didn’t have my buy stop in at HOD of first 30 minutes. So took the day off after I missed the reversal.

ACTUAL
Daily gain/(loss) $0 (inc. 0 commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($4,690) -4.69%
Daily ES Points = 0 per contract
Monthly ES Points = (25.75) per contract

SYSTEM
Daily gain/(loss) $755.80 (net of $9.80 of commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($1,414.80) –1.42%
Daily ES Points = 7.75 per contract
Monthly ES Points = (2.75) per contract

 

No system or actual trades today. I hope my system reverts to its mean soon. The win/loss ratio this month has been terrible at .9 to 1.0 with a 50% win rate. The average is 2.2 and 55% for the last 13 months. The fundamentals will return eventually and my system will plow forward.

ACTUAL
Daily gain/(loss) $0 (inc. 0 commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($4,690) -4.69%
Daily ES Points = 0 per contract
Monthly ES Points = (25.75) per contract

SYSTEM
Daily gain/(loss) $0 (net of $0 of commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($1,414.80) –1.42%
Daily ES Points = 0 per contract
Monthly ES Points = (2.75) per contract

 

I sure love these big daily ranges. Was tempted to hold after the HOD breakout but couldn't imagine who would want to hold overnight going into a weekend of spectacular terrorist attacks. That doesn't mean it won't rally to the close but I think the odds are against it. My system says stay in long, but I'm overriding it today. I'll be proved wrong as usual.