Yes, you can't cherry pick. My problem is taking profits too soon, cutting off the positive expectancy of my system. This is probably due to increasing my size recently and not being comfortable with it. I'm going down to two contracts until I get my discipline back. This system I'm trading relies on those 10% of good moves that make most of your profit for the month. If you chop those short, you will be hurting. I haven't had a big trade yet this month, but I've cut short some smaller trades, which isn't a good sign. I normally can hold these with smaller size.
The market always teaches bad habits. We can't let our profits run in chop, so we start taking profits sooner. Then the market has a relatively rare trend day and we miss the whole thing. It may even provide a few of these so we start loosening our stops again. Then it rams into those stops like a pile driver. --Db
I've broken even with my system the last 13 months following the break above/below the 30-minute bar in the direction of the gap. Recently it's been more profitable, but since it hasn't shown any positive expectancy for my system, I don't trade it. I know people have different exit rules, so results would be different depending on exits. I go for the gusto, so my stops are wide but so is my hold time. The occasional 25 point gain is always offset by many 4--6 point losses for my system.
11/07/2002 Final No trades today. Don't trade in the direction of the Gap unless it reverses. Looking to go short tomorrow around today's close (902.75) with stops around 908 (pretty tight). This system can be pretty streaky (as well as my execution abilities) so being down 2% isn't abnormal. It usually hovers for awhile around breakeven and then hits some good streaks during the month. With more trades per day you can have more consistent results, but the tradeoff is more screen time and higher commissions. I can take a shower, watch tv, anything within alarm distance and trade this system because of the few trades per day and the stop and reverses. The downside is if I screw up a couple trades I can do serious damage in one day to the profit or loss, especially on the much talked about outlier days. If I cut those short, it might be 30% of my profit for the month.
So when you talk about the gap, you're referring to the difference in price from 3:15 pm to 8:30 am right? Or not right. What is the significance of the gap and why is it significant?
Yes, yesterdays' close at 3:15p.m. and todays open. Entered short this morning at 904, with stops a few points above the pivot.
Didn't the elections already occur? Flipped my shorts and am now long from 908.25. Will hopefully ride this the rest of the day.
Please realize that the 100 DayEMA is 911...... look how it just got repelled from that.10:10am eastern.
You know, we should do a post nightly of all significant numbers to keep in mind for the next day. Fib retracements... significant MAs... previous days/weeks support and resistance. Or better yet everyone with something to contribute could e-mail someone and have one nightly post? Somehow a way to get numbers thought to be valuable to the next days trades posted for everyone interested without opening it up to all the nonsense that usually enters a thread after a couple of days. Anyone interested in starting something? ~EC
No trades done yesterday (Veteran's Day). Currently long 2 ES contracts from 882.25 above the pivot. Holding with trailing stop. I'll recap MTD position at end of day.