System for lease, see stats

Discussion in 'Classifieds' started by oraclewizard77, Feb 12, 2011.

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  1. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    Please check out my system

    You can subscribe on C2, but in the future I will have my own website.

    Also, I offer mentoring for futures including a non automatic system for trading futures.
  2. Lucias


    I do not like these stats. I explain why:

    1. Only 6 trades. While it is not clear what "statistically significant" would be, I like to see 30 to 50 trades before implying anything about a system.
    2. Only 28% of your trades were profitable
    3. The biggie: all of your gains have came from 1 winner. If I missed that 1 winner then I've lost money on your system.

    On the plus side, you trade the system with your own money and describe your general strategy.

    Good luck with your system!
  3. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    Thanks. Most trades that I take will go into draw down immediately. Over time I have around a 50% win ratio. Also, I rather take many small losses and hold winners a long time.

    The system is of course only showing a few months on C2 so it will take time to get to 30 trades.

    Yes, to make profits and to sync to the system, you will need to be willing to hold a the winner like the system does. This is not a day trading system like I do for futures where I could easily do 30 trades within 2 months.

    However, I think the benefit is that its easy for anyone to manually trade the system since the stocks and options will not move quickly giving them time to get in at better prices than I did.

    To take advantage of time decay when I sell options, I may sell them 1 - 3 months out so to complete the trade will take time. Also when I buy low cost stocks, I am waiting for a specific event to take place which can be 3 months or more in the future. If after I open a position something changes either based on price or expectations, then I will get out of the position and take the small loss.

    I actually have found that any system with over 90% win ratio usually is over optimized and will have 1 loss that will blow up the system since these systems rather take big draw downs rather than admit they made a mistake on a trade. Also, there are some stock systems that go for $ .05 - $ .10 profit on a trade that look good with an upward curve but when you factor in cost of commissions, trading fees, and losing trades, they really don't make money. This is why I try to make maximum profit on my trades and less trades equal less churn and less total commissions.

    Some people think you need a high win ratio to make money trading, which is why very few people actually make money trading or playing poker.

  4. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    This shows the trades I did in a real money account I manage for this stock NEOP. I want to show that its very realistic for someone to obtain similar trading results.
  5. gianno


    They are correct.
  6. NKNY


    Not true actually as long as your winners make more then your loses. This is especially true for trend following systems. Look at Richard Dennis, he lost on about 90% of his trades if I remember correctly and yet made over 400 million...

  7. No. They are not correct.
  8. I think Richard Dennis also lost a lot of that money afterwards. I'm fairly certain of that actually (he may have made some back?). It's still impressive that he built up such a large fortune from such a small sum.
  9. Roark


    Isn't there a conflict of interest between being a moderator and selling your systems on ET? If not, let's get Don Bright to be a moderator. Or maybe that Murray guy that's always touting his Trend Harmony system.
  10. NKNY


    Yes he did... he came back and then blew up again... But while he did make his fortune he win ratio was really low...
    #10     Feb 21, 2011
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