FWIW, at least two ET'ers "in the background" hit for a net of +30 or more yesterday. I'll not say who and I wouldn't ask either to back me up on that. And a personal friend of mine hopped on the elevator early and rode it straight down, exiting near the close. Again, I have no proof of that (at least no proof I'd post to an internet forum) so if you think I'm full of shit, so be it. If you can't see the possibilities available on a day where the NQ puts in nearly a 120 point range, and where the heading into the NYC open the market broke the lower limit of both the primary range (H-L of prior 24 hours) and the lower limit of the premkt range, then one must conclude simply that we see things differently. And that's ok. I can accept it EDIT: I do believe one of those in the background was likely paper trading in preparations for going live. The other two I spoke of were $$$ trades. I know that matters to some of you.
So today started out alright with a few bumps in the road (woulda,coulda,shoulda) and then the wheels came off - I overtraded like a fool. I was late to my first long because I wasn't sure about the ON range. Price exited and then tested it (RET). I wasn't sure if it would continue up or not. But hell, one is never sure. So I hesitated and then went for it anyway. It worked out, but I should have been at my +10 much earlier than I did. Either way, that trade worked, but it should have been less stressful. Hesitation is NOT good. I missed the first (and best) entry for the short. There was a LH at an area that I had marked for potential S/R. But it was inside the DL I'd drawn and the entry would also be there. So I didn't take it - and price took off without me. So then I took another short later and luckily it also worked out with both contracts meeting the +5 and +10 targets. Then I didn't take the test from 4282 - either time - and then I got caught in the back and forth choppy business from 1040 to 1130. I think I need to put some limits on myself with regard to number of trades. If I take 2 and they both work, I should likely hang tight. If I take 2 losses I should do the same. One of the things that had me messed up today was the number of areas I had marked as potential S/R areas. Hell - my chart looked like a striped shirt. I used areas of hesitation from the ON action as potential areas where price might pause or reverse. But then because price moves so much more during the NY hours, every few minutes it seemed as if price was going to hit an important level. So I just never got in a groove today.
That 10:35-11:35 was a mess. Sometimes I guess I think I can outsmart the mess - but the mess always wins. I took a late short near the end of that mess. A few seconds later I was out on my hard stop for a quick -5. The mess always wins. Always. Usually I am pretty good about "fencing it off" and waiting for a breakout. Usually, but not always. I do stop trading if I start out with two losses in a row. Most days I do not get in and out like I did today - I can't say I overtraded, as I thought each of my entries and ultimate exits was warranted by what I was seeing in the market, but I made what is a lot of trades for me. today. Here is where I am especially good. If I am unsure about anything, if I feel that my prep has left me unprepared, I do nothing until I synch up with the market. If I still feel out of synch at 10:30, I go into spectator mode - I minimize my TWS and just watch the market in demo mode. And I won't even trade demo. I just watch so that I have a chance of picking up the story for the next day. If you do not feel prepared, e.g. "I wasn't sure about the ON range," I'd say you had no business trading at all today, imo. As to the overtrading, you need to put a note in front of you saying "Don't do anything that you do not want to make into a habit." Because if you are going to overtrade demo, what is to stop you from revenge trading when you go live? You need to figure out some way of putting on the brakes when needed, gears. Think "Good Habits."
Trying to figure out where price might pause or reverse. Obviously it was overkill and got in my head.
Something I have become very cognizant of in myself, is that when I start to think "It looks like it wants to........ or "This is a good place for it to......., etc. I am usually wrong. Trading what I think rather than what I see has been a big thing for me to undo.
If you're not sure about the range, use what I post before the open. As for "where price might pause or reverse", you're putting the cart before the horse. Review the hindsight charts I posted. The lines you've drawn are incorrect. If the lines are drawn correctly, any other consideration is extraneous and only encourages doubt and hesitation. In other words, as long as the stride is intact, "areas of interest" are irrelevant. You begin in the range. The demand line you have is inappropriate. If you're in the range, you have the option of shorting when price reaches the top of the range or trading the breakout if it exits the range. If you'd rather wait for a retracement after price breaks out of the range, that's your choice. Demand lines do not yet enter into it. The first option never presents itself. Therefore, you have a choice between buying the breakout or waiting for a retracement. If you buy the breakout, you might exit the trade if it returns to the upper limit of the range, which it does, or you may not. If you do exit, the opportunity to trade the retracement occurs immediately. Once you're in and you have your first swing point, you can then draw your demand line. When this is broken, you can enter the short on the first retracement thereafter which, in your drawing, is to the left of the DL when it should be to the right.
So because it's in the range, the DL isn't necessary and you don't draw one until price exits definitively? Ok - that works. I drew it the way I did sort of to allow price some room - so I wasn't doing the spandex thing. But because of that, where the LH occurred did cause me to pause and as I said, price took off and I was so annoyed at myself. Even though it didn't work out for me, it is still affirming when I see something and it does work out - even if I didn't take it - because it means that I'm reading the situation correctly.
The SLA doesn't apply in ranges. Ranges are traded via reversals, not retracements. The trend begins after price leaves the range. You're overthinking it, trying to protect yourself from being wrong. But you're incorporating so much unnecessary information in your assessments that you're pretty much guaranteeing that you will be wrong. All that matters is the range. While price is in the range, trade it accordingly. If the range is too narrow to trade, leave it alone. When price leaves the range, just follow the drill. "Areas of interest" are not pertinent unless and until price reverses at one, and if it does, you don't even have to know it's there. Clear your head of everything but range/trend and reversal/breakout/retracement. All the rest just makes it that much more difficult to focus. For your collection: