I know this is posted in the ES thread, but I didn't want to jump into that fray. Would you clarify the above information or perhaps let me know if I understand what you meant by it? The upper end of the range was at 4360. Are you suggesting a strategy to play the breakout OR the REV, one could place a long stop at 4362 and a short stop at 4358 to be brought into a trade whichever way the market ended up going?
In my experience, yes. But this is something that each trader will have to determine for himself according to whatever instrument he's trading. I have found that trying to enter with a tick or two or a point just isn't enough. Two points is more likely to reflect conviction. I do understand, however, that if one uses stops and places one at the danger point, he's entering that much farther away from his stop. However, if the move is "intentful", the odds of price backing up on him is that much less. However, you must account for the possibility that price will back up on you, stop you out, then go back to its original direction and decide in advance how you're going to deal with all of that. Note that I am not offering advice here, which is why I didn't go into this level of detail in the pdf. You have to find for yourself that spot where profit and comfort coexist.
I did well with this sentiment today while taking a few pages from the 40D book of trading with 2 contracts (sim, of course). Went short at 4359. Took 5 points profit at 4354. Got antsy with the 2nd one though and moved my stop to take 3 points as the movement off the 50% level got into my head. Need to have faith of "range behavior" more. Then I took a long at 4346.75 - 4343 had been hit and then a LH occurred. Took a bit of a chance waiting for the LH, but it's what I did. Took 5 points at 4351.75 and then the 2nd at 4356.75. I wasn't moving my stop for the long - it's sim - watch and see what price does. I'll never trust that price moves in ranges a certain way if I don't sit on my hands and see what happens (even knowing that the lower end could be tested again).
Intention understood and not trying to corner you into absolutes. Just wanting to be sure I understood the message.
AMT requires a lot of patience. It would drive a scalper crazy. But you can count up the number of points available today just by trading this *** range.
The day is by no means over, but I think my concentration level is shot considering the whole day has been inside the range. I did take one trade and held it according to my plan (at an extreme, 2 contracts - take 5 points on 1st and hold for 10 points for the 2nd). Obviously the plan only works when the range is large enough to do that. I definitely left some on the table, but I'm ok with that. I'm not all about posting proof (and this was sim), but here it is. I didn't catch the REV at 1023 because I thought price might go a little higher and then the change of direction caught me a little by surprise. Then it seemed too late and I didn't want to just jump in. I realized that it was ok though - just let it go. Today was another day of ingraining in me that waiting for the right area to be approached and then acting then is SO much less stressful than jumping on board just anywhere. Reading some of the posts in the ES journal is causing me to shake my head with wonder as to why trades are taken and especially the stop placement. But I don't need to worry about anyone else - just myself.
A Hall of Fame effort, imo. I can't tell you how proud I am of you today, gears. I know it hasn't been easy for you, but you proved to yourself that you can do this. You don't yet know everything there is to know (none of us do), but you know more than you need to know in order to succeed. The only thing left is to keep believing in yourself, gears, and turn today's behaviors (yours, not the markets) into habits.
Did you notice any difference in how price behaves at the real extreme as opposed to what you only thought might be an extreme?