Yeah I was looking for a 2388 area pullback to go long. It is close to yesterday's low and at an area of S/R we had in the ES before last week's selloff. It stalled as usual around 2400 but it looks like the Fed minutes may have pushed it a little higher for the close, at least that is the time it rallied today. Without a major news catalyst I would hope for a nice pullback soon...?? Anyone eyeing an ES pullback entry? I guess always tricky with the end of the month here too...
Do you ever have the problem of price retracing to a S/R level but stopping short before reaching your entry and then turning back around and leaving you? You never know if price will reverse as it nears a major S/R/ line - If it's a trade I really want to be in I start watching shorter term charts like 10/30/60 minute charts as price nears the S/R looking for a big hammer candle or 2B with volume confirming it, than I will take a smaller position and layer into a larger position - adding only if I have a decent profit. Check out this explanation of Wyckoff using volume to catch S/R swings.
Thanks for the pdf I will check it out! Do you look for all types of reversal candles... inverted hammer, doji etc or mainly a big hammer candle? Just wondering if you give more emphasis to some over others.
Do you look for all types of reversal candles... inverted hammer, doji etc or mainly a big hammer candle? Looking for clues that there was some capitulation and a base formed to trade from. It could be a rounded bottom, triangle, rectangle, etc. From experience I most often encounter 1 or more hammers printing near the same level and often a slower momentum retest - printing a 2 or 3B. If you do it a lot you get a certain instinct for it. I like these trades because my reward to risk can be skewed at extreme levels and every so often you get a home run. A lot of people get shaken out of the S/R swings - including myself, that is why the $/trade mgmt is the most important part of the trade.
I have a pretty similar trading style, though I only use support and resistance incidentally, and I trade options over stocks. But I use that method for entries / exits and direction. As others have pointed out, more horsies in the stable is the answer to missed opportunities. I try not to get too precise with my support levels, because you're likely to miss the forest through the trees. And I use "round" prices (i.e. If calculated support is 150.27, I'll use 150). That's not as relevant to indexes though because it's basis is in interpreting behavior / decisions that just don't get made on indexes (people buy / sell FB at $150, but 2400 on the S&P doesn't translate to people buying or selling the components...at least not so far as I can see). My options strategy involves the underlying price being in a small range relative to its strike, so I often don't see many opportunities even watching 50-ish symbols. I just keep looking until I see something. Options do give me the benefit of just throwing up my hands and taking an entry even without the signal...obviously not something that works with other instruments. Another thing, because I view support as fluid, close counts, so a signal near support is as good as signal at support. And finally, I am more likely to use support in an exit than an entry just because my risk goes up the longer the price lingers (because I'm net short). Though presumably the opposite is true since you're trading price.
I wonder if GC would typically reach a support level if treasuries and yen rallied with USD falling along with a dovish fed statement and increased inflation expectations. It's possible large money , desiring large liquidity at a previous support level, to load up without effecting price too much , would throw in the towel, turn the gold market around , and run price up fast due to lesser liquidity at present levels. In theory this is possible. This isnt fundamentals , its observed price action. Sometimes.
It going to be six of one and half dozen of the other, if you lower timeframe you will get more signals and more losses than whatever you doing now. There are work arounds but of course there be more rules, time stops, many more breakeven plus one tick trades, I trade great deal of one minute timeframe, well automated now, but unlike my sixty minute system has like 10 rules, one minute system has 50 rules because smaller the timeframe is more of like profiting off the noise of the market when scalping and more doing of what most should never do which is averaging down. Again, it is 6 and 6 as far as adding more instruments, whereas how about adding options to the mix, if you are staying in trades longer, learn how to hedge profits and if market is doing a retracement, you can be not losing on the futures via using the options and add more to existing position when buying the support and exit the options. Can do credit spreads instead of buying outright. You seem to have a good mixture. Perhaps add the Bund and Eurodollar, slow movement not always bad thing using 60 minutes on the Eurodollar. Have a separate account to trade Bund, convert US dollar to Euro so every trade you don't have to constantly pay exchange rates, fees are less and Bund trends nicely. Have you ever considered doing commodity spreads, ie buy March corn/sell July corn