Key word “ should “ plunge . I’ve looked at all the earnings this qtr and overall we had a shitload of crappy earnings yet we still sit near ath’s . Rates when from 0 to 5% in 2 years yet the mkt suts at ath’s . In decades past p/e’s would have contracted . Yet we sit at a staggering 20 p/e with very little growth . Thank Wall Street for this with AI hype . In the 90’s it was internet hype and in the 2005-2007 frame it was sticks are so cheap private equity will scoop up . Wall Street is the master of illusion and it’s why the mkt never stays down for long . The moral of the story is what happened in the past can’t give you a guidepost to the future . That’s why trading over the very short run is tricky .
Now is when I would take the short. 1/4 here and 1/4 at the ATH. I world expect another mini wave down from here BEFORE we resume up. Things need to take a break IMO
Yep, I think the greater Risk is being Long now. With the Consumer still spending, Oil rising in March and April I don't expect Inflation to have dropped much. With Employment numbers dropping and possible sticky Inflation, the next move maybe down, unless The Fed members start voicing concern about softening Employment. Out. (Don't follow me, I'm lost too!)
Looks like the Qs are weak compared to DIA or IWM. So many high fliers got smacked the last 2 days. Seems like the action is in the utility providers like PWR, HUBB, ETN, etc. The move in the Utilities is pretty amazing. I think XLU has been up like 4 weeks in a row. Only 2 down days since 4/16. That usually means a slowdown or recession is coming.
Zero hedge is saying what I’m saying . Next weeks cpi will be a big miss as shelter cost have fallen. Es from 4960 ish low to 5240 in about 3 weeks . Mkt obviously smells something
And if The Fed doesn't cut till December what will you say then? Harumpf harumpf he didn't want to be considered another Arthur Burns cutting too soon right? It is always politics when the other side does it.
The Market is betting on first Rate cut in September, according to Interest Rate Traders. But this was wrong earlier in the Year, by a Mile. But it seems to get quoted a lot. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Look at the European market. It is getting higher and higher. DAX, DJ EURO STOXX50 broke the record high. CAC40 is going to break the record high. Who knows, copper might break the record high.