Hope this will get you out of your predicament. Happy trading! A monk asked Wei-kuan: “Where is the Way?” The master said: “Right in front of us.” The monk charged: “Then why can’t I see it?” The master replied: “Because of your selfishness, you cannot see it.” The monk quickly responded: “I’m so selfish, I can’t see it; but Your Holiness can see it?” The master (clearly a very charitable man) said: “As long as ‘me’ and ‘you’ are involved in this, the situation gets complicated and nobody can see it.” This monk, on the other hand, was a lot of work – maybe he should have hired a nanny, but instead, he insisted with the Zen master: “So, when there is neither ‘me’ nor ‘you’, the Way can be finally seen?” Wei-kuan (so generous), gave this monk(ey) some banana candy to chew on: “When there is neither ‘me’ nor ‘you’, who is there to see it?”
This is how you trade people... It takes Guts..but this is how you trade. We get in these "always long" ruts and we stop really trading. We just follow the pack. To use contrarian trading, to use the other side trading...this is the nitty gritty..takes us out of our safe space.. He gave us a chart. I never ignore the posters that give us a chart.
Tomorrow your time, FOMC Member Kashkari is to give a Speech. Earlier in the Year when Powell signaled Interest Rate cuts were on their way early on this Year, the Market rallied. Then within Days other FOMC members came out and disagreed with Powell, saying Rate cuts were to be put off until later this Year, the Market plunged. This time maybe different with those Payroll numbers coming in soft last Week. Certainly, Thursday and Fridays Employment numbers will be strong Catalysts.
I'm sure he'll just toe the official line. As usual, same crap, different soundbite. Kashkari Says Fed Could ‘Potentially’ Hold Rates Steady All Year (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve needs to achieve more confidence that inflation is declining before cutting interest rates and could possibly delay such a move until after 2024, said Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Asked whether it would be appropriate to hold rates steady this year given upside surprises in recent inflation data, Kashkari said “potentially,” speaking during an interview on Fox News Channel. “I’m in the view of, we need to wait and see, be patient as long as it takes, until we get convinced that inflation is on its way back down to 2%,” he said. Kashkari has been among the Fed’s more hawkish policymakers in recent years. He does not vote on rate decisions this year.
My Economic Calender says he's still to speak. Secondly, your Average Hourly Wages are coming down from memory, as your Payroll numbers did last Week. I'm not totally sure of the Labour Market in the U.S., but here is Australia our Central Bank is concerned that Employers are "hoarding Employees" - not sacking Employees but rather trying to keep them on due to the past tight Labour Market. This sounds like when Payroll numbers or Employment numbers drop, they'll do so quickly, which has a further negative effect on Inflation and pressures the Fed into cutting. These Institutions know all this, and if the above is right, the Market should continue its upward bias imo.
This was beautiful, but humbly, I disagree. For a trader, there is only one side to be on and that's the right side of the market. Being a contrarian per se is not a winning approach. If it goes up, you should be long. If it goes down, you should be short (or wait for a dip to go long). Ultimately, any trader which fights the market will lose. I've seen countless smart people over the years who simply can't go long because the market's irrational, overbought or what have you. Points are points. And being a contrarian doesn't pay extra. Following is perfectly fine if one can do it effectively.
A strong Monday up following a positive Friday have seen consolidation or continuation on Tuesday most of the time in the last recent past. A dip pre-market or on the Open would most likely be a good buy for a move back to yesterday's high. A full reversal, while possible, seems like the less likely scenario given that.
So far, so good. Very high odds of a a green close today (obvious, maybe). Just watching for the LOD or maybe 5210 / 07 to hold on any pullbacks here (if any). If this market keeps going today, I figure ES can print 5242 / 5250. Overextended, yes, but nothing that haven't happened before. Dips are gifts for now.