I'm giving myself enough wiggle room, up to 444. But I don't think we will even go anywhere near that level. Fingers crossed.
Ok, another philosophical question for you then... Why not just short the mini NQ futures? Smaller size bet, longer term? (Only asking because you seem to normally trade several lots, so adjusting size with futures shouldn't be an issue). Feel free to tell me to mind my own business
Just trying to keep you at the top of your game. For all I know you might have had a really good reason.
You go man! I would wait for it to top out and then make a decision on the way down. 3 scenarios I see for a successful short. From best to worse, IMHO. 1) Tries for a new high, and fails, short away there and stop at new high plus some 2) Fails somewhere between here and the High. If the channel looks good, short from top of channel to bottom of channel with the 200 being a barrier to bounce off of. 3) Fails here. Short to the 200 MA overshoot. I think the other thing to keep in mind is things could start to drift now. Nothing dramatic until fall. Sure some moves etc, more drifting, which to me means drift up, since that is the prevailing direction.
I'm with @schizo ... A retest (or an attempt at a retest). However, I'll stick with YM and NQ in the RTH session, and leave the ETFs and swing trading in general to others.
I've tried to swing trade ES futures early last year to a dismal result. So I've since switched to stocks/ETFs when I'm swinging for the fences. Anyway, here's a Zen poetry for the enlightened Jedi within you : In the infinite sea of the universe, There are billions of dragons and fishes – All are eating one another; Very busy loaves of meat! Because appearances in the mind never stop, Illusion is formed like mist; But your true nature is like a shining moon – In the open sky, its light is clear And borderless.
That's always been my Achilles heel. I get in too damn early and the thing just drifts sideways and more often than not I'm forced to get out and reenter later. And even though it would eventually drop, it does eat into my opportunity cost. That might be the case with this trade as well but I remain hopeful.
As noted above, I've never had much luck or success swing trading ES last year. I don't mind holding the position overnight, but I would not wanna hold it for like a week unattended. Too much headache.