The last time SPX broke above a major swing high it was a 1.5 % up day. ES currently up 1 %. Let's see what happens on an SPX 5300 touch. ES could hit 5350 today.
Going with the flow is just another way of saying don't fight the market. The market's always right. If you're long in a down market you're also fighting the market. Although specifically with my prior comment I was referring to people who for various reasons are blocked from going long or lack the imagination to even see the market moving higher. I think most people are bad short term traders. It's not easy.
Although I do agree about having to just follow the market, there are two problems. One is a major event, like when gold standard was removed in 1973, or when Cypress banks closed due to the financial crisis there, or when the Swiss currency I think it was, which was allowed to de-peg which caused an instant 30% move. These things happened in an instant and no ability to make a trade. Highly unlikely, but still a factor. (not for the day trader though) The other issue is that buying the dip will one day stop working, or at least 20% correction or bigger will happen. There is nobody left right now it seems who is even scared or aware that markets don't always go up. Simply looking at the real estate side, many owners think their houses are worth way more, and they will be completely trapped when the downturn goes into high gear. So although I do understand the longs seem to win way more often, every now and then, the once a generation wave comes along that takes out all the long players.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. How is any of this helping you and how do these two problems hinder (day) trading? 1. You do say that 'these things' are highly unlikely. 2. Buying the dip actually works pretty good even in a bear market. The only time it doesn't work is in a rare trend day down. In fact, it's not uncommon that during a down phase the up swings can even exceed the down swings. Trade the market as it is now. Today. If a crisis does come at some point, let's deal with that then, no? My only fear is some type of flash crash where liquidity simply disappears and you're instantly 100 points in the hole even if you had a stop.
Simply, NO. That is not reality. A crisis will never occur. There's too much intervention that would block anything from getting there. Only thing you could in theory see is what happened mid April, but now more than ever the dip is always going to be bought. I've said since I joined this place and it hold true, it's insanely difficult to not only bring the market down, but even harder to keep it down. You can't find any drop for the past year in a half that didn't V rather quickly. Everyone knows that there's a lot at stake and people do view the economy as the stock market. Any time there's any dip or it goes on sale, you have very hungry dip buyers ready to gobble it up. At some point you could always see the odd day or 2 where it will drop, but it will always bring a relatively fast V recovery.
Buy the dip is always good. It's even easier in a "bear" market as the snap backs are always guaranteed. A down market brings volatility and there are always sharp recoveries. A strong bull market is a slow meltup and sees almost no pullback.
Well, I agree, but it still requires some skill to recognize the dip, though. For US indices if you could use only one strategy or entry, it would have to be BTFD.
It's not even that, it's the weekly chart. This has the making of a very large green candle. (Like I've been saying) Only question is will this week have 1 "red" day. But there is zero chance this thing is reversing this week. If you see it drop $1 or $2 will instantly get gobbled up by hungry dip buyers.
What sometimes surprises me, it that most people on this board with lots of years of experience, albeit amateur, will not shout to btf on for example last 18/19 april. Myself included, even after the 10+ years ‘screentime’. It’s like most become the rabbit or deer in the headlights. Maybe 3/4 persons excluded (and ofcourse V-shape), no one opted for a buy in capital letters 18/19 april.