I picked a good time to start trading this strategy with the market entering a correction potentially. However, as long as I continue to stick to the strategy, it will out-perform over the long run
This market is not being kind to my strategy right now. I do not think this has anything to do with the strategy other than picking a bad time to start trading it. Any long position would be suffering right now
That trade was placed due to my <a href="http://www.mystockanalysis.com/stocks-to-buy/trend-strategy/">Trend Following Strategy</a>. It uses 33 patterns discovered through data mining. I recognize right now is NOT the best time to be going long with the current market down trend. However, utilizing tight stops, I can continue to trade the strategy instead of trying to "guess" when the market will bottom. Since starting this strategy, the S&P is down 3.5%. While my strategy is down 1.6%. As long as I continue to out perform the S&P, I will consider the strategy a success.
So if the S&P returns -30%, you will be successful returning -29.8%? -_-' Your definition of success is a frosty engine.
Considering how many funds exists that do not even out perform their target benchmark such as the S&P, I place a high value on simply outperforming. To judge the success of this method requires looking at a lot of variables: #1 Does it outperform simply buy and hold the benchmark index #2 Evaluate the relationship of returns versus draw down compared to the benchmark returns/draw down #3 Amount of capital required to trade compared to buy and hold. My strategy is not meant to be a get rich quick scheme or return 100's of % a year. It is meant to be a solid strategy that is capable of outperforming the S&P over the long run and in return outperforming many of the funds out there.