A little self depreciating humor -- I have an idea but I don't know if it will be successful over time and since there is zero commissions on stocks I can trade very small. If it is a dependable trading plan it is easily scalable up considering the stocks I am trading.
I watch a whole market not just 64 stocks and I have trouble finding more than a few set-ups at a time. You might consider tightening up your entry requirements.
you may find this interesting... Stocks priced $X or less have the highest average rise with the lowest failure rate of any range studied. Stocks $X or below have above average gains and lower failure rates than the higher priced stocks. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...st-right-here-baby.335635/page-8#post-4990185
Thanks for referring me to this thread. I spent some time reading it beyond the specific reference that you were pointing out. And, yep what I am trying to do is in there. I am trying to develop a trading plan based on Fibonacci Retracements. For that reason (in reply to deaddog, I love Beagles too) my 64 stocks may be too many not too few, since you have to really study the charts to get a feel for where the current price is.
With 64 stocks what kind of moves are you targeting in your swing trading? I typically target a 15 to 20% move in 1 to 4 weeks.
I don't even think in terms of percentage moves --- just trying to think of support and resistance as defined by the Fib levels.
Don't take this personally, but imo a dumb idea. What you propose is a pure TA method, it's been thought of before and is simplistic and will fail. Price does not obey TA rules. You need to come with something more original. Edit: If it does work, it wont be because of your fib rules. It may work because you are buying pullbacks, and likely because your 64 stocks are quality type stocks which have a higher than 50% chance of rising.
Your points are well made and you are probably correct. But if it does work (as you explain) because I am buying quality stocks on a pullback in a rising market then that is good I guess. What I am testing as well is ---- Will the fibs get me predominately short and protect against a large drop in the index in a major decline. My daily accumulated performance to date comparison against the SPX and NDX will be the test.
No I don't. My spreadsheet will determine the historical results as I have a W/L percentage and a Ave Profit to Ave Loss ratio. Right now I have mainly closed out my losers so it will take time for the results to fill out. Ideally the W/L is above 50% and the Profit Ratio is above 1.00. Time will tell.