Coolless --- lets do some math here together so far i have had 4 covers of 1/8th positions from my swing trade for profits of --- 1/8th for 10.25 points 1/8th for 9.50 points 1/8th for 20.00 points 1/8th for 7.00 points then i had some profits {we won't even count these in} from position covers on wednesday before Thanksgiving day. all my order replacements have made money {there was no cost to me and there were profits left over after paying for the commissions of the trades} for me as i shifted the trade cost basis higher. so as of today i sit with 46.75 points of profit cashed out, and my new cost basis for the position i am still holding in a 7/8ths of full size is about 1272.00 {trade is now about 6 points in the money}. i have had the market continue to rally and i have been able to pull out profits while shifting up cost basis for a swing trade that is still almost at full strength {7/8ths of full size as of today} and in the money. while the market has gone up i have cashed out profits already for 1/2 {4 covers of 1/8th} of my normal swing trade position size while patiently waiting for any market reversal. whenever the market actually does reverse {i do not have a clue when that will happen --- do you?}, i will be hitting extended profit targets on the way down --- and while the whole time i was waiting for this reversal i was getting paid. i am getting paid over 2 points a day for the size of 1/8th position while waiting for the reversal to take place --- that is math i can live with.
i have now covered another 1/8th at 1260 for 11.00 points and these were from the 1271.00 cost basis level. i am still holding 3/4ths of a full swing position now and with a group of the 1271.00 level entries just covered my cost basis has now shifted up to 1272.75 --- this is my cost basis now for the remainder of the swing trade (no more order replacements needed from any previous positions}. ***side note for "Coolless" this is additional favorable math events today.
why are you covering now? Isn't it suppose to be a swing below 1239? I am just messing with you. You do not have to answer.
no problem --- i will be scaling out 1/8ths about every 8 to 10 points down just above market profile s/r levels.
ok i have covered 1/8th at 1254.75 for 18.00 points ---- the 1255 area is the previous high of the year area so i will get some positions out as this area may hold for the day. i am now holding 5/8ths of a full swing position. my next 1/8th target level is at 1245.75
i have my rollover completed for all position contracts as of yesterday --- i covered all of my "Z" contracts yesterday before the close at 1255.50/1255.75/1256.00. i entered all positions into the new contract at 1265.50/1265.75/1266.00 {was able to shift the new contracts at a higher equivalent price with the short covering at the end of yesterday} ---- the new "equivalent" cost basis for my trade is at 1280.75. looks like my next target will be at 1253.75 now for the new contract --- i will verify this later when i check the market profile levels again today.
hi Macro - how would your strategy have done in 1995? i.e. what would be the return, the max drawdown and the corresponding leverage used - i assume it would have "cleaned up" in 1991-1994..?
i would have to go back and look at daily chart signals for that year to see how many potential swing trade longs i would have had and how many shorts. this year as i have already stated in this thread i am in my 8th swing trade for the year {some longs and some shorts} --- the 7 prior swing trades for the year were all very profitable and i have booked profits so far here in my eight swing. last year all of my swing trades were fully profitable {hitting 50 to 80 points with my last scaled out positions} --- so each year looking back in history has its own look from several key aspects. in 1995 that year was very different from this year 2005, so the economic conditions that i look at vary from year to year. in 1995 the foreign inflow/outflows from our market did not have the effect that they have caused several times in our market this year. inflation, oil prices, interest rate changes, and other aspects of this year cause me to do things that i may not do in other years --- each year is its own story.
ok thx, i didn't realize you use macro fundamentals, i thought the approach looked a bit more mechanical... i guess i should have gathered this from your Handle good luck with this trade and all the best.