OK i am ready for a swing trade short here after a nice 10 day run. I have 40% of my ES position on from 1234.00/.25/.50 and i will scale in the remaining entries all the way to 1239.00 --- above 1239.00 i will have a 5 pt stop to 1244.00. whatever entries that i can't build into my position today from price not getting to 1239.00 i will add full in at a 1229.50 break today from any possible downside movement. time to take a swing at this move.
ok --- i now have all 40% of my positions at a 1235.00 cost basis and all other previous positions were covered with +.25 points {in other words i have "replaced" my previous orders at no cost to me and shifted my cost basis and stops 1 point higher}. so far the market is in our lovely 7 tick range --- ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzz
Overall I think your play is strategically sensible except for the stop. Looking at the charts, a stop of 1250 + buffer would be more logical. (1246 SPX hi + 2.75 fair value = 1248.75)
methinks a good time to go short might be on Monday morning, after the amateur hour drives up prices....
According to Stock Trader's Almanac, the week before Thanksgiving week (which is next week), the S&P has been up 11 of the past 12 years
well i am posting what i am committed to ---- i am taking a swing from what i see as a "higher probability" attempt. if we grind up higher i will then also be afforded the luxury of "order replacement" all the way up, thus moving my cost basis and stops higher ---- FOR FREE!!!
my order replacement method is why i am not worried about the price level you mention --- my stop has the ability through my trade management style to be continually adjusted higher {along with the trades overall cost basis}.
and now go back and look at what has happened in the market after a 10 day run of the SPX never breaking a major support level. so far we are on day 11. :eek: