My outlook from this point forward encompasses an imminent retracement of 25-50% of the moves on the major indicies on the rally from early March, but a deferral of any new lows until 2004 or later. This rally has been too powerful and the breadth too great to dismiss as a mere sharp Bear rally. Its a mini bull in the context of a secular bear. This barring any extraordinary exogenous shock. Indicies put in reversal bars on weekly, stochastic is rolling over, and volume this week was huge, but net movement relatively little, evidencing an increase in churning. Anyway, potential downside targets on a retracement for the Naz and which I would hold as progressive short targets would be 1550, 1520, 1470, and if it gets really deep, 1420. S&P: 948-954, 920-925, 900, and if it gets deep, 870, 855. DOw: 8750, 8512-8535, 8250. The Fall may give some great long opportunities.
I took a short on KLAC at 48.50 and am holding overnight. I have some regret not cashing in at 47.50. Will watch EBAY to see a challenge of 100 and if it fails, consider a short. IBM appears to be bouncing from a rollover and may offer a good low risk short if it resumes downward