Swing/Position Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dgabriel, Mar 13, 2002.

  1. Not short anything yet, but this is what's on my radar screen

    INFA
    EQR
    RX
    ALD

    EXPE looks like a great short. I might jump on that.
     
    #211     Jun 19, 2002
  2. Watch out on this one. Short covering can move it up quickly. Eventually, though it will fall and fall hard.
     
    #212     Jun 19, 2002
  3. What in the world keeps EXPE up.

    Personally I don't think it's worth $20
     
    #213     Jun 19, 2002
  4. All major indicies are in an arc now heading down after the launch shot on friday. The Naz is in the lead.

    Thursday of option expiration week is usually volatile, so tomorrow may be a rocky day.

    I have an order to cover my SMH short at 31.60, and will be out of the office all morning tomorrow.

    There is so much talk lately of 1) a bottom working itself out now, and 2) a necessary bottom, that is one with a classic accelerated panic stricken selloff.

    With so much anticipation, a surprise denouement probably awaits us.
     
    #214     Jun 19, 2002
  5. Cover SMH short 31.60 + 1.74
     
    #215     Jun 20, 2002
  6. Hey Guys


    I've been studying the USAI's possible takeover of EXPE in an attempt to find out if there is a rational way to make money. All I've concluded thus far is that it's probably best just to watch the whole thing from a distance.


    Seems risky, but EXPE is a pig at over 2000 times earnings. Without the 2.69 USAI share offer for each EXPE share, EXPE could easily be at 45 by the open Monday (currently around $68).

    I think the best move would be to buy some OCT puts. This way should I somehow fail to make money in the short run, the ugly summer which is coming will certainly yank the stock down.

    The thing that scares me the most is how this stock moves. I swear there must be manipulation in EXPE from the big boys, there is no reason that this thing should keep even 25% of its current value.


    Please offer up some criticisms.

    (side note, premiums on EXPE puts are outrageous)


    Long today

    SHPGY 25.39
    ITT 69.54
    CURE 14.30
     
    #216     Jun 21, 2002
  7. Can't explain EXPE now. Don't know.

    Short 500 QQQs @26.07, not too certain on this, will give it 26.30 stop.
     
    #217     Jun 21, 2002
  8. What kind of target and time frame are you looking for on this trade (short 500 QQQ)

    Thanks
     
    #218     Jun 21, 2002
  9. EXPE is scary long or short. Highly volatile, not at resistance or support and we are in triple witching day. There are easier shorts out there.
     
    #219     Jun 21, 2002
  10. Well, I was thinking that it may take out the days lows and hit 25.50- 25.60, and that the Naz Comp would breach 1450 and not recover but so far the Comp has been hugging 1450 today. I am not planning on taking the position home, win or lose.

    Naz seems stretched to the downside, and some indicators I look at suggest a bounce (VIX, Put/Call, TRIN, MCllelan) may be coming so I don't want to be short on Monday.
     
    #220     Jun 21, 2002