Market commentary for 01/09/2007 Good day! Yesterday was another slow day that was whippy with little intraday action. If you look at the daily charts we didnât get any significant change. Daily/ intraday support/resistance held and if you read yesterday's market commentary, ditto today. It is pretty frustrating repeating day after day. Recommended in this high risk market is to use patience, trade with smaller lots and take faster profits. That is what I do in the trading room. Until we have these slow days behind us, this is only way to trade this market. We had nice day yesterday, NTY and SKX (ITT and MSCC from before) proper risk/reward saved our day and we finished positive. That is reason why risk/reward is is very important for me. One trade like NTY with more then 4:1 r/r negates several negative trades and SKX with run at the end brought us to positive area. This is VERY IMPORTANT part to be successful trader. Hope everyone understand that, if not you can always contact me in the trading room or over email. Also donât forget that we will have today class in the trading room (all is FREE). I will stay with same tactic today: small risk, less trades and donât forget CASH is a position too. Be patient the market will come back. I always does.---- Good luck trading today!!!! http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007qqqq60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007dia60.jpg Watch list for 01/09/2007 IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LONG: Swing possibilities (ST-PT) CROX long above: 45.20, stop under: 43.00 (44.00), target: 50.00 areas ST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007crox.jpg Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006 SHORT: Swing possibilities (ST-PT) EQR short under: 49.50, stop above: 50.00, target: 48.00 areas ST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007eqr.jpg Last/next earning date: Feb 07, 2007 Day trade possibilities (DT-ST) TRB short under: 30.80, stop above: 31.05, target: 30.00 areas DT-ST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007trb.jpg Last/next earning date: Oct 19, 2006 Watch ideas: Long: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007mksi.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007bax.jpg Short: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007czn.jpg Tracking records: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/dwl122006.htm - for December http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/dwl012007.htm - for January I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic danded2005@inet.hr
Key point how to be successful, bigger gains then lost. How? I know that is frustrating to see this kind of market action. Intraday moves are whippy and we see divergence every day (between the QQQQ on the one side, the DIA and the SPY on the other side). Most of traders have difficult time to make money last weeks. Our room doing well and we are flying very nice through this unstable market. Right now, more clear then ever, coming out what I told several times and I will repeat again, risk-reward is VERY IMPORTANT. I will show you few examples what we had last days and you will see what I mean. 1. HANS http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007hans.jpg before http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01112007hans.jpg after If you follow room action risk-reward is more then 3, if you stayed longer it is around 5. That mean we got 3 time more from this trade then our risk. 2. CROX http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007crox.jpg before http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01112007crox.jpg yesterday 3. SKX http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01082007skx.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01112007skx.jpg 4. MSCC http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01052007mscc.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01112007mscc.jpg 5. ITT http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01052007itt.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01112007itt.jpg Those are just few trades what we had this year. You can see all brought us very nice risk-rewards. On the tracking records you can see that we had negative trades too, but whole point is that our profits are bigger then our lost. That is key, and that is way how to be successful. Wish you all good trading Ivica
Market commentary for 01/12/2007 Good day! We finally saw a move without a divergence. The QQQQ made a new weekly high and finished the day in overbought area (daily CCI is 218), and SPY and DIA touched the previous daily resistance area. On the daily QQQQ chart you can see that is the 3rd try to break on the new weekly high and the QQQQ finished there. That is good news for long side. The bad news is after several positive days from the range low we need rest before another move. The 60 min equal move is also telling us that. The other indices are telling us the same after the intraday move and daily resistance area. After yesterday's strong move the market needs 60min consolidation and that is what I will look today. I see room for a possible move up in the morning and my focus will be there. We must be cognizant for a low risk move to new daily highs for the SPY and the DIA we need to see a 60 min consolidation first. Until that occurs, I will continue to look for intraday moves and take faster profits. For me my trading risk will remain small and on every swing trade. I will start will smaller lots and if the situation improves, I will add to the position. CROX and ETN as swing trades gave us a nice profit, the same is with MET as a late day trade. The same tactic will be today. For intraday ideas, visit trading room and you will get all my live updates. Good luck trading today!!!! http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01122007qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01122007qqqq60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01122007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01122007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01122007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01122007dia60.jpg I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions. Ivica Juracic
Weekly/friday results From watch list ACN - entered (37.43) day trade exit (37.95) plus $0.52 remainder swing looking for (50.00) From trading room calls CMCSA - entered (43.30) day trade exit (44.00) plus $0.75 (remainder swing looking for (45.00 â 50.00) http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01122007acn.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01122007cmcsa.jpg Weekly swing results CROX - entered (45.25) day trade exit (48.95) plus $3.70 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007crox.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01112007crox.jpg HANS - entered (34.40) day trade exit (37.90) plus $3.50 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01092007hans.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01112007hans.jpg ETN - entered (74.20) day trade exit (72.00) plus $2.20 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01082007etn.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007etn.jpg ITT - entered (57.05) day trade exit (56.60) plus $1.91 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01052007itt.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01112007itt.jpg MSCC - entered (18.85) day trade exit (17.55) plus $1.30 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01052007mscc.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01112007mscc.jpg Wish you all good trading Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 01/16/2007 Good day! The QQQQ after being the leader the last few days was the laggard with the SPY and DIA showing more strength. These indices all made new weekly highs. Unfortunately, they did stay in a consolidation area and now are at daily high resistance. Without weekly rest, we can't have a low risk situation for this week. All we can do is follow the market action. Right now, I would expect a move up in the morning. To look for a swing move up would be extremely risky especially after three green bars on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, you can see that QQQQ broke its range and did that from the range low without rest. That is not good for swing move up but is good for another move up today and that is what I will look for this morning. Intraday the charts are extended for all the indices, but remember they can become more extended before they start with consolidation. I will stay with intraday moves right now and I wonât change anything in my risk. So far, we are doing well, despite my worries. For swing setups I will start with less risk and then I will add my position and that is best way to use them now. Again, we donât know when the weekly consolidation will start, but we must have that possibility in mind all the time. About intraday setups, visit the trading room. I will give all updates in there. Good luck trading today!!!! http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007qqqqweekly.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007qqqq60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007spyweekly.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007diaweekly.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007dia60.jpg Watch ideas: Long: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007acv.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007regn.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007inpc.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007hlth.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007nsc.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007nwl.jpg Short: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01162007iig.jpg I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 01/17/2007 Good day! Yesterday we saw a narrow trading day or we saw NR7 day. That is the narrowest trading day in last 7 days. That information can be used today since that generally means we have a higher possibility to see a trend day. On the intraday charts, you can see the Indices continued with Friday consolidation and that telling us about long bias what I will have today. I will look for long side, but we donât have blind signal, no matter how nice the consolidation at the highs we continue to have the weekly situation and the possibility for a longer weekly correction. Because of that I will not trade with full risk, but definitely, I will look for long side. Those who follow me for some time know that we have several ways to trade trend day, and on of significant is to take position after first 60 min lod/how (lod= low of the day, hod = high of the day). In case of the trend day, it is very desirable to be in the trade in the last hour because if we have truly trend day then we could see some nice action at that time. Also trend day will be subject of Thursday class in the trading room. My bias is on the long side still only for day trades. INTC earnings yesterday afternoon, while good disappointed the street so we may have wait to see if they influence the open. This market still is not setting up for swing trades at this time. Good luck trading today!!!! http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007qqqq60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007dia60.jpg Watch list for 01/17/2007 IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LONG: Day trade possibilities (DT-ST) CTRP long above: 66.00, stop under: 65.50, target: 67.50 (68.00) areas DT-ST Last/next earning date: Nov 08, 2006 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007ctrp.jpg NWL long above: 29.82, stop under: 29.60, target: 30.50 DT (open ST) Last/next earning date: Jan 30, 2007 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007nwl.jpg HLTH long above: 13.00, stop under: 12.80, target: 13.50 areas DT-ST Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007hlth.jpg SHORT: Day trade possibilities (DT-ST) GROW short under: 57.00 stop above: 58.66 (59.44), target: 52.50 (50.00, 40.00) DT-ST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007grow.jpg Watch ideas: Long: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01172007fwrd.jpg Tracking records: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/dwl122006.htm - for December http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/dwl012007.htm - for January I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 01/19/2007 Good day! We finally saw nice trend day, unfortunately only the QQQQ participated. The SPY and the DIA did not follow the weakness. The DIA actually exhibited some strength. You can see we didnât see massive market selling and the divergence between DIA and QQQQ is still here. The QQQQ is back to the middle of the daily range and closed at the 20sma daily support area. That is always a big support area for every time frame and most of time the first try to break that support/resistance area will not work. With that knowledge and DIA, SPY action we can expect different action tomorrow. I will expect that the QQQQ will hold daily and 200sma 60 min (red line) support area. So I will expect more consolidations on the 15/30 min charts. In the mean time, I expect stronger action from DIA and that can bring us some nice setup possibilities for individual stocks. Donât forget that today is option expiration day and we could see whippy action and good way to avoid that is design your trading plan with larger stops than usual. That way you can avoid the situation when you get stopped out and then the stock immediately reverses in a favorable direction. Yesterday we had nice day with semiconductor weakness (CYMI, BRCM, LRCX, KLAC etc), and all those trades came from intraday action. I will use that tactic during earning season, plus swing trades that have their own way. For today, I will look for QQQQ consolidation and more strength in the other Indices. Most importantly, I will follow market action. If you like to get intraday market and stock calls join us in to the trading room. Good luck trading today!!!! http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01192007qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01192007qqqq60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01192007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01192007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01192007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01192007dia60.jpg Watch list for 01/19/2007 I did not find very many interesting setups for swing traders this morning. My goal is to bring you lower risk, higher probability trades. The market is now is higher risk for new swing setups so the number of swing trades possibilities are fewer. I will continue to work for your long-term success. So please understand why there are fewer trade possibilities. All updates about watch ideas will be in the live trading room. Watch ideas: Long: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01192007acas.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01192007wsh.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01192007nsc.jpg Short: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01192007pcg.jpg I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Trend day We all know that is much easier make money during trend day than during a consolidation or flat day. Since we trade for profits lets us see how we can recognize this opportunity and take advantage of trend day. How do we look for a trend day on the daily chart? It is a big extreme bar with opening near lows and ending at highs with big range if is upturned trend day, if is downtrend trend day then will be opened at highs and will close near lows with extreme range and high volume. The volume is usually larger than normal or average. Intraday the action you must see is a clear trend with higher highs and higher lows for uptrend and lower highs and lower lows for downtrend. That is the easy part to recognize trend day then we must know when it is over. Around 3-7 times over month we will have trend days in the market and in individual stocks. Every day we will have trend day in individual stocks so it is very important to recognize them. Trend days are also important for risk management, because I will trade with bigger lots then usual during a trend day because that is good way to maximize profits. We have several ways to recognize a trend day. One which I really like, is a NR7 or a NR4 day. That means the narrowest day in last seven or four days. That is all in line with reading market and understanding the market. We know from the trading plan class that after a move we need rest and that is our best chance to get good risk reward. That is most the important part if this style of trading to be profitable. All come from words and intraday action. Since we use daily charts for scanning then I will look for NR7/NR4 on daily chart. Mean we must see on intraday charts (60/30/15/5 min chart) consolidation after move what we had before, and that intraday consolidation must bring us one of our patterns (flag, base, triangle). With that situation we can expect to see a trend day. Of course again is very important to have all the pictures on screen. Because if we have strong support/resistance that is very close I donât want take that trade. Example: continuation pattern near 200ma daily and that is 1st try to break that resistance on move up. I wonât take that trade because most of time 1st try wont break support/resistance area. Second way to recognize trend day possibility is extreme situation. One is big gap. Bigger is better. That will bring more interest on stock or market. Two reasons this can be a trap or news and in both situations we have an extreme situation. Of course trap can be because of news. The bigger the gap the it is better for us. In that case we can expect trend day in gap direction. That is reason why I like gaps and I immediately start scanning for them. OK now we know how to recognize them, now few words how to play them. As I told you before traps can play with 5 min high/low setup. That is more aggressive entry and will be valid if 5 min range isnât too extended. Then you can go short or long (depend on gap) and generally can stay in it for rest of day if we have trend day in place. You can also use another tactic. That is long/short above/under 60 min high/low. You just need to mark 60 min high/low and go with that and must move stop under/above previous pivot. If it is a trend day, then you just move stop with higher low, or lower high if is short trade. If you miss one of those setups you must watch intraday action and can take trade on any breakout or continuation. You must follow intraday charts 5/15 min and watch for intraday setups. 10/20 sma area can help you with that. You all know that I like bounce from 20sma and in trend day you can use 10sma possibility also. There are many times you can see a strong pace and in that case 10sma can help. What is important to see if we are in a trend day when we took trade? Volume is very important. In trend day volume will be much higher then usual in days before and that will be proving about trend day. If we donât have strong volume during day then we can get case with strong move in the morning and reversal after that. So volume is another important part of a trend day. If you are in trend trade you want be positioned the last hour of day because lots of time we will have strong move in that period continuing the move from earlier in the day. If you are focused for trading trend days, you can with few days make enough for whole month and for other days you must use proper risk management to safe profit what you made. The reason for that is very simply, it is much easier is to make money during a trend day then in a consolidation day.
Market commentary for 01/23/2007 Good day! The SPY and DIA caught up with the QQQQ yesterday. The 20sma proved too strong to be broken on its first attempt. The QQQQ consolidated on the 60 min 200sma and it finally did break and finished below that level. The morning selling was the sum total of the market action yesterday. The rest of the day continued the consolidation of the market. The SPY showed some action but it was without strength and did not bring us any low risk setups. That was reason why I had no interest in that possibility. Since the indices stayed above 20sma support area (except the QQQQ), it is hard to have a bias for today. I will go with intraday action and right now I can see either direction in the morning. For the larger time period I will look for continued market correction on the weekly chart. During the earnings season that is perhaps the worse market action. I will continue to look for individual stocks since they will always be there especially during earnings. For swing traders risk remains higher and I will start with small lots on the every new trade. Yahoo reports earnings today and that could move market. Please note it is common for the market to gap during earnings so we will wait to see what unfolds. Good luck trading today!!!! http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007qqqq60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007dia60.jpg Watch list for 01/23/2007 IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LONG: Day trade possibilities (DT-ST) WFR long above: 46.50, stop under: 45.25, target: open DT-ST Last/next earning date: Jan 25 2007 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007wfr.jpg SHORT: Day trade possibilities (DT-ST) FFIV short under: 73.73, stop above: 74.33, target: 72-70 areas DT-ST Last/next earning date: Jan 24, 2007 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007ffiv.jpg Watch ideas: Long: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007vnda.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007acas.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007mir.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007fle.jpg Short: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007nvec.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007agg.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01232007crm.jpg Tracking records history: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/dwl012007.htm - for January I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic