Isn't that just groupthink? This is already explained in Fibonacci so not sure what you're trying to accomplish but give me the stocks and I'll tell you the future prices. Also starling murmation is the result of sensing the shift in flight of the birds immediately around them...so it's more of a domino affect than a group thing.
User 'trismes' was kind enough to post the link to Estimize https://www.estimize.com/ So there are obviously ways to apply the principle of swarm intelligence. What we are trying to do now is narrow it down to a few markets and estimate not earnings data but the highs and lows of the next session. Hope that helps.
No, it's not what's called groupthink. In this case, the participants do not discuss or share their estimates with each other, but transmit them in isolation.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fibonacci-perspective-emotions-ali-anani-phd It's all Fibonacci at work not swarming. Like at the supermarket or bar you get cycles of lineups and no lineups...one would think it would be spread out evenly. Why does your website reference murmation then? That phenomenon is not done in isolation.
What you should be considering is the markets determinism. Earnings reports can be forecast...even determined by cycles in the price action. People think that price reacts to news, but price is determined by Fibonacci cycles, so therefore news will facilitate what is necessary for the price to complete the current cycle. In other words Fibonacci determines the environment needed to complete the cycle, and the news will tend to facilitate this. So related to your experiment, a good earnings report can be forecast if the price cycle determines an extension in price.
That's great. So are agent based models. But it's not this... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds Mindgamer you might have noticed everyone's gone off at a tangent. 15 years back I pitched Autonomy to use their sentiment analysis to predict volatility in financial markets. My pitch wasn't clear; actually it was bloody awful looking back. They dismissed it out of hand, then two years later two tech students sold a model based on same to Goldmans for a couple of mill. Just sayin.
It is a lively exchange. Everyone has ideas about this little experiment and shares them. That's perfectly fine. We'll start on Tuesday and the empirical results will then be available for us to look at and ponder.
Please check the charts of the following instruments and estimate what the high and the low of tomorrow will be! EURUSD USDJPY DJIA TBONDS AAPL Bitcoin/USD Write your estimation as an email to: swarmintelmarkets@gmail.com by 11:30PM (cet) at the latest. It is relevant that no forecast is made available to the other participants or posted here. Each part of the "swarm" must forecast autonomously. Do technical analysis (TA) or just guess intuitively INT). At 11:45PM (cet) or maybe later the result will be published here. Write the Email in the following format: EURUSD H:1.0860 L:1.0735 DAX H:18722 L:18510 INT (or) TA ________________ H=High of the day L=Low of the day INT=If you have used your intuition (incl. fundamental data knowledge) TA=If you have used technical analysis No additional text please! If you like this experiment, forward this thread to your friends! The higher the number of participants, the higher the expected accuracy.