I have been jumping in each time the /VX switches from Backwardation to Contango. Has worked for the last 3 years without incident. (I did not trade the French election, however): Caveat: I always exit with a price target, so do not catch the full move.
Dynamicvol on twitter did a backtest on what the new version would have looked like going back to 2004 using the index values. I thought the comparison was pretty interesting.
The /VX? The VIX you mean? Where do you look at, do you use vixcentral.com? And are you trading options or you just buy the stock SVXY then?
Not VIX, but the /VX Futures. VIXCENTRAL is good reference for observing front two month /VX futures and their contango relationship. These are the products that influence SVXY pricing. I wrote a study for observing, but VIXCENTRAL has the same info. The signal referenced suggest a relatively low entry price, as well as a possible time delay till the next big event, as Backwardation is relatively infrequent. -- I have been trading the stock, but may re-evaluate call options now.
I bought the SVXY 01/17/2020 75 calls. I think it's win big or lose it all. But I'm aware of that, do you think it's a good buy or do you like to buy more at the money options?
I give you this , they are cheap enough at 20 c if thats what you paid. No real bargain, but I'd suggest not putting 1/2 your net worth in them
That is not what I would do... However, our goals and criteria are different AND are subject to change. I am still figuring out what makes sense for me, so my advice should be given very little weight.
Any data to explain what is happening with SVXY today? -- Yesterday's info suggested it would be -0.5X (instead of -1.0X), however today it seems to have lost the "sign" and multiple!