I know that peak oil fans will rail against me like crazy, but there are plenty of alternative sources of oil/energy available. Oh, yes, the peakers say, "but not at a price that is available to extract it efficiently". To which I reply - Look. In the setting of a serious and dire energy emergency, barring political stupidity, energy will be rationed into those activities that will produce more energy in the future: 1. Nuclear plant production 2. Solar energy production 3. Coal and oil sand extraction 4. Wind energy production 5. oil extraction from existing supplies And what will happen is that: 1. Gas will be rationed 2. People will telecommute, ride the bus, drive vespas, (nat gas powered) or won't work. Jobs that require a 60 minute commute simply won't happen. We will adjust. 3. People will grow own food (victory gardens,anyone) to supplement shipping shortages. 4. Yes, economic growth will suck for 5 years, but thereafter, things will get back to a degree of normal and we won't be quite so wasteful. These doom and gloom predictions are a bit too silly - like that old ABC afterschool special in the 70's where the government came into the home and took away the daughter's hairdryer!!!! Really now. So there will be a million rusting SUV's. Who cares.
I am a peak oiler, and I agree with your post. The problem is not peak energy, it is peak oil. Peak energy is the "goin back to the stone age" scenario, which isn't going to happen. Civilization will not collapse because the electricity will still be on. But there is no alternative to liquid hydrocarbons for transportation and many uses, and this is going to get hellaciously expensive. Lives will be radically transformed, and for the worst, for the most part. This is a situation where the USA---with widespread living and work arrangements---will suffer more than other places where population is concentrated in cities. The question is the economic sensitivity---and your personal standard of living---to the upcoming lack of cheap liquid hydrocarbon fuels. If you can go about much of your day by walking 6 blocks---as people can in some cities---then you will be OK. That isn't so for almost all of the USA. San Francisco will be the most desirable places in the USA, with compact walking-distance life possible and a fully built-out and efficient electrified street car system (they already have one to start with). It will be the only city which will still look as rich as the "glory days" of the 1st world. New York City will put in electrified street cars on some avenues---newly closed to passenger cars---and will do pretty well, as will Boston. Northeast urban cores will be in revival, especially as climate change moderates the winters, and capital is redeployed to in-city electrified transit. Los Angeles will be a crime ridden hellhole. Of course there will be some oil left, but it may end up being heavily rationed or subsidized for some uses---e.g. subsidized diesel for food trucking. And these trucks will be carrying armed guards riding shotgun, literally. Air travel will return to being a luxury for the very few like in the 1930's. Service will get much much better, and the airports will be heavily overbuilt for the capacity. Tickets will cost $6000 though.
Shares of Zap (ZP) rocketed higher by 83.6% after the company said the 2005 model year of its Smart Car Americanized all-gas turbo-powered car has a fuel economy rating of 40 miles per gallon for city and freeway driving, according to tests conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The tests were conducted at the EPA's testing lab in Ann Arbor, Mich., the company said. Kirk Kerkorian is buying GM, eh? Well, let him have it!
i heard a number somewhere that the actual production of the car costs already half of the energy the car will use during it's lifespan in use.
08:23 ET Ford Motor: Consumer drive for hybrid autos is slowing down - WSJ (F) 7.65 :WSJ reports the co is on pace to sell about 35% fewer Escape hybrids than it has capacity to build at its plant in Kansas City, Mo., although sales have picked up since January. For the first three months of this year, hybrid sales were flat at the co compared with the same period last year. However, hybrids like the Toyota Prius and Honda Civic Hybrid still enjoy strong demand. But the slowdown for some other models comes as more consumers are questioning whether hybrid vehicles deliver sufficient fuel savings in real-world driving to justify the extra cost of the technology. A Honda Accord Hybrid, with a V-6 engine, gets 25 mpg in the city and 34 mpg on the highway, while the less expensive, conventional four-cylinder Accord gets 26 mpg in the city and 34 on the highway. A recent, widely publicized report by Consumer Reports said only two of six hybrid models studied recovered the price premium after five years and 75,000 miles. The Prius and Civic Hybrid provide a savings of several hundred dollars.
Maybe that has to do with the Escape being a boring, low-quality appearing not-really-really-truck not-really-wagon which doesn't give all that great fuel efficiency anyway. When has Ford attempted to build a car as good as the Civic + Prius ?