Lately futures have not been as accurate at forecasting the open. I have noticed on dow futures today and yesterday they are ofter very high pre market like they are being bought by some goverment agency. But it isn't working very well because they spend the rest of the day trending downward. Just look at todays chart of YM. At 2:44 ET in the morning we had a high of 9246. Maybe this is just trend buying I don't know. But what on earth justifies that much above the previous close? Especially after yesterday's 400 point selloff at the end of the day? What do you think?
"They" can see you and your positions and are out to get you. Better make sure your windows and blinds are shut, and lock the door.
It is really simple. Overnight futures (mostly) follow markets around the world and when the market opens here, we close the gap. Happened both on Tuesday and today.
Going into the close the cash has been higher then the futures. Overnight the futures catch up to the cash. Plus it looks good when the futures go by on a ticker and read up 200. Gets the public to settle down.
Really? It seems the late-session 10% jump Wednesday ran up like a perfect program. I do not think there are very many buyers or sellers out there, right now. So it is hard to look at that ascent and feel there is much conviction - more like manipulation. Yes, volume increased as traders jumped on the bandwagon, but what about yesterday's last minute decimation of gains? Sure then overnight - which we all know is low volume - ran things right back up. And now the sell-off. Seems clear manipulation buy programs from institutions and/or government. Question is. . .are they selling off each rally - sticking Joe the trader with the bag. This market has been quirky for more than a year. Great for daytraders and perhaps long-term investors. But for mid-term traders it is a nightmare. Hard to stick by convictions when every time you turn around the thing moves 500 points. When I see those small little staircase moves on low volume - I think it clearly tells the picture. Gov is throwing Wall Street tons of dough to "get them to lend" leaving us with the bill - all because their leveraged investments went south. They want us to drink the Kool-Aid and believe that they HAD to intervene or things would be MUCH WORSE. I beg to differ. Merrill Lynch got it right when they found out they weren't getting bailed out and QUICKLY moved to save their ass. I think the whole banking industry if left up to natural market forces would've quickly merged/consolidated, wrote down all their bad debt and quickly went back to loaning, since that is only how they can make their money. Seems clear to me.
Bloomberg recently had an article on this. That tool Gavin from TradeGuider has made a lot of money selling expensive software recently by screaming about the vast conspiracy afoot to manipulate markets.