Surprise! Romney Leads By 4 Pts. In Pennsylvania

What does intrade say?

 

A few examples


Bush /Kerry





Obama /McCain





2008 House





2008 Senate






2010 House(From July until election day they had Republicans taking the House over 50)





2010 Senate(Dems always above 50 )




Wisconsin recall( Had Walker over 50 the life of the contract)












http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHESLVopa6GY


Intrade Online Bettors Back Christie Over Corzine in New Jersey

By Jonathan D. Salant - November 3, 2009 11:05 EST




Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Online bettors are backing New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in today’s election, although polls say the race is too close to call.

Bets that Christie, a former U.S. attorney, would win closed at 55 yesterday on Dublin-based Intrade, meaning the online exchange put his chances of victory at 55 percent. Bets on the chances of Corzine getting a new four-year term closed at 50. Independent Christopher Daggett was given a 1 percent chance of winning.

The surge in online betting for Christie, 47, followed three polls showing a statistical tie with Corzine, 62. A Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University poll showed Christie ahead, 42 percent to 40 percent, with 12 percent for Daggett. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Polls by Madison, New Jersey-based Fairleigh Dickinson University and Monmouth University put Corzine in the lead, 43 percent to 41 percent, over Christie, with Daggett at 8 percent. The Fairleigh Dickinson poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points, and the figure for the Monmouth survey was 3.7 percentage points.

“Corzine seems to be a very unpopular governor but Christie hasn’t been convincing in his campaign,” said Carl Wolfenden, Intrade’s exchange operations manager.

Virginia’s Race

In Virginia’s gubernatorial election today, Intrade bettors gave Republican Bob McDonnell, 54, a 99 percent chance of winning and ending the Democrats’ eight-year hold on the state’s executive office. McDonnell, the former state attorney general, is running against state Senator Creigh Deeds, 51. An Oct. 22-25 Washington Post poll gave McDonnell an 11 percentage point lead over Deeds, 55 percent to 44 percent.

In a U.S. House race in upstate New York, Intrade bettors gave Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, 59, a 75 percent chance of winning today’s special election for a successor to Republican John McHugh, according to yesterday’s close. Over the weekend, the Republican nominee in the race, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, dropped out and endorsed Democratic nominee Bill Owens, 60. McHugh became secretary of the Army.

A Loudonville, New York-based Siena College survey released yesterday gave Hoffman a 5 percentage point lead over Owens, 41 percent to 36 percent. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

 

Go blow yourself Obama boy. Once the democraps aren't able to block the truth with executive privilege and other illegal manouvers you will find out that Obama and Holder are both felons. It's going to destroy the democrap party.

So, take your fucking donkey cock sucking filthy little mind back to your mothers basement Obama slime boy.

 

“Turns out that crowds might not be so wise after all,” Ellis writes today.

His story:

The BGOV Barometer shows how subscribers at Intrade.com placed increasing wagers that the U.S. Supreme Court would declare unconstitutional a provision of the federal health law requiring Americans to purchase medical insurance. Bets against the so-called individual mandate surviving a court challenge rose to a record in the hours before the court announced its decision just after 10 a.m. Washington time yesterday.

Bettors on Intrade’s political futures market were willing to pay as much as $8.20 to collect $10 if a majority of the justices voted to overturn the mandate. That was up from $4.75 on March 25, before the start of Supreme Court arguments on the health-care law.

“The alleged wisdom of the crowds can just as easily be described as the delusion of the self-appointed cognoscenti,” said Gary Langer, president of Langer Research Associates in New York.

 

Pointing out what a fucking idiot pspr was with some of his many failed predictions seems to have angered the little fellow LOL !!!

 

I have said before many times there is a huge difference in the accuracy of Intrades political election markets and their non political election markets.I even made a 30 day posting ban bet with lucrum that The SC would uphold Obamacare when intrade was 75 % against it

Intrade detractors love to bring up the SC decision but it wasn't a political election . I can post more political elections they got right then you can post political elections they got wrong

 

I just checked and intrade has you at 99% probability of being a douche.

 

You're drifting into that area known as trolling

 

Maybe he thought you looked lonely there all by yourself.