Surprise! Romney Leads By 4 Pts. In Pennsylvania

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by pspr, Oct 18, 2012.

  1. pspr


    A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.

    Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.

    It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.

    "The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it," Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.

    Romney isn't spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

    Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent.

    Susquehanna's automated poll of 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.

    Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.

    "Republicans haven't been able to do that in 20 years," Lee said. "Romney has made some major inroads."

  2. No conflicts of interest there
  3. pspr


    Just PA, VA, CO and FL of the tossups would give Romney a win and possibly lead to a blowout.
  4. Pretty much the only one predicting an obama win are the nitwits on intrade.

    My guess is the open interest is primarily liberals and foreigners that can't vote.

    Funny stuff.

  5. Lucrum



    I'm voting tomorrow, BTW.
  6. AK, if you can't understand how worthless intrade really is after reading this you are truly hopeless.

    New Jersey governor John Corzine had a significant advantage over Chris Christie heading into today, with his odds to win at 70%. With polls out today showing Christie up by 2 points, Corzine's odds to win have now dropped to 50%.

    Obama was at 80% a few weeks ago BTW.

    Is it sinking in professor?
  7. Those nitwits picked Obama in 08,Bush in 04 ,Christie over corzine,scott walkers recall win and many more

    In 08 intrade was picking the winner and idiots were picking the republican...same thing is happening in 2012
  8. Ok, at the close or expiration intrade was correct, is that what you are telling me?

    I'll dumb it down for you. You'll notice a high on 9/30 and it's been declining ever since.

    You will notice the number is not static. It changes daily, so just because on 9/30 there was roughly an 80% chance, if the election would have taken place THAT DAY Barry would have one. But, as you can see, the election didn't take place that day and he no longer has an 80% chance of winning.

    Is it clear? Pretty much every single poll contracts what intrade says.

    Date Close
    30-Sep-12 78.7
    1-Oct-12 76.3
    2-Oct-12 74.5
    3-Oct-12 74
    4-Oct-12 66.9
    5-Oct-12 66
    6-Oct-12 67.8
    7-Oct-12 64.8
    8-Oct-12 63.5
    9-Oct-12 63.8
    10-Oct-12 62.9
    11-Oct-12 61.9
    12-Oct-12 63.3
    13-Oct-12 58.8
    14-Oct-12 61.7
    15-Oct-12 62.3
    16-Oct-12 62.4
    17-Oct-12 63.5
    18-Oct-12 65

    The conclusion is, intrade is pretty much useless.



    Intrade Online Bettors Back Christie Over Corzine in New Jersey

    By Jonathan D. Salant - November 3, 2009 11:05 EST

    Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Online bettors are backing New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in today’s election, although polls say the race is too close to call.

    Bets that Christie, a former U.S. attorney, would win closed at 55 yesterday on Dublin-based Intrade, meaning the online exchange put his chances of victory at 55 percent. Bets on the chances of Corzine getting a new four-year term closed at 50. Independent Christopher Daggett was given a 1 percent chance of winning.

    The surge in online betting for Christie, 47, followed three polls showing a statistical tie with Corzine, 62. A Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University poll showed Christie ahead, 42 percent to 40 percent, with 12 percent for Daggett. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

    Polls by Madison, New Jersey-based Fairleigh Dickinson University and Monmouth University put Corzine in the lead, 43 percent to 41 percent, over Christie, with Daggett at 8 percent. The Fairleigh Dickinson poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points, and the figure for the Monmouth survey was 3.7 percentage points.

    “Corzine seems to be a very unpopular governor but Christie hasn’t been convincing in his campaign,” said Carl Wolfenden, Intrade’s exchange operations manager.

    Virginia’s Race

    In Virginia’s gubernatorial election today, Intrade bettors gave Republican Bob McDonnell, 54, a 99 percent chance of winning and ending the Democrats’ eight-year hold on the state’s executive office. McDonnell, the former state attorney general, is running against state Senator Creigh Deeds, 51. An Oct. 22-25 Washington Post poll gave McDonnell an 11 percentage point lead over Deeds, 55 percent to 44 percent.

    In a U.S. House race in upstate New York, Intrade bettors gave Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, 59, a 75 percent chance of winning today’s special election for a successor to Republican John McHugh, according to yesterday’s close. Over the weekend, the Republican nominee in the race, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, dropped out and endorsed Democratic nominee Bill Owens, 60. McHugh became secretary of the Army.

    A Loudonville, New York-based Siena College survey released yesterday gave Hoffman a 5 percentage point lead over Owens, 41 percent to 36 percent. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
    #10     Oct 18, 2012