Quote from marketsurfer: What is your chart telling you about Monday? You TA folks speak in riddles that can easily be interpreted after the fact to mean anything. Please be specific. My Price Drivers are signaling bullish for Monday. I maintain, once TA shows it, its too late or of negligible value in MOST cases. Enough so to negate the value of such an approach. Clearly, it can be shown in a very small number of circumstances to have value-- such as the daily candle in JCP-- but its not repeatable enough to be of interest. surf It is telling you the welcome mat has been replaced by the trap door. It's not talking about Monday, it's talking about now - take profits and reverse short. You hold that short until you get a buy signal and that might be on Monday. It might be in a week or a month as this has the potential to roll through a lot of time frames. This is a dangerous position to be long imo because of the roll over potential. In any event bank profits, sell short and wait for the buy signal. Xspurt Ok, we have doubled down into the Dec YM long at 13497 signals are strong for a bullish monday and next week thus far. enjoy! Surf Great! I do like the sound of doubling - we got double elephants Xspurt From the above it was clear that TA would have made a double profit by closing surf's long to bank profits and reversing short to add to profits from the fall. However surf's price drivers not only overstayed their welcome, they were extra bullish in a TA short set up and doubled up for a double loss instead of a double profit. Even reversing surf's price driver signals won't help much because of the lack of control. (For Oilfxpro, freak and the gang of trolls, Monday comes after Friday as every call I make is hindsight to you)
TA works. It not only calls the reversals and trends but it gives the trader control. Is it perfect? Of course not. But it is a powerful way to understand what the market wants to do as I've shown on JCP and the Dow and both were in the opposite direction to surf's calls. TA is all about Price Drivers: real ones Here's a before and after...
Maybe you got those "intimacies" mixed up eh. You thought so and so was on top but turns out they were really on their knees or some such.
Brother Surf, you entered a long position in the middle of a normal with-trend pullback. A pullback in a trend tends to continue pulling back until price reaches a key support level. In a nicely defined uptrend, "support" is generally considered to be somewhere in the vicinity of a lower trend line, a previous resistance level, or a 20-period EMA. If you look at a daily chart of SPY for example, you'll see that price spent the past few days pulling back to a) the 20-day EMA, and b) previous resistance from 9/7 thru 9/11, which is where price has ended the day. If you enter a with-trend position while a pullback is mid-way thru its likely journey, you risk taking a lot of heat on the trade, and in a trend that's been running for three pushes or more (like this one has), you risk getting trapped in a deeper pullback (there's still a lower trend line well below today's low in the SPY 140.50 zone), or possibly even a trend reversal. This is how technical analysis helps those of us who use it. It helps us time our entries so we have less to lose should price reach a level where the odds become unfavorable to us.
Not always, but basic long-term business cycles of boom/bust as well as many micro-cycles in certain individual stocks and commodities are of this nature almost certainly (gold comes to mind first among recent examples). While the speculator's job is try to predict crowd behavior and the current cycle stage to exploit it.
Kinds of correct surf. Glad to see you are beginning to understand that trends exist. The public "think" they are trend followers but the greatest action tends to happen when the public pile in and the smart money reverses at a top and the opposite at a bottom. The strong hands are often in a position to create market hype about the offer so the public buy as they sell. That "good news" can often be seen as sleight of hand by reading the PA with the volume. It takes some time to learn to read Wyckoff type set ups but it is well worthwhile. Your Price Drivers will be vulnerable to the legerdemain that is an essential part of the market and will skew your price driver numbers as we are seeing. TA takes this good or bad news into account and offers a systematic way to identify the true intent. For example, when you shorted AAPL before the biggest retail success in history you were against the flow of money. After that the public were vulnerable to a drop when the maximum money had been sucked in. I said if you had gone long on your short and reversed short where you closed out you would have been closer to the perfect trade. You got the noise and timing all wrong. TA is about real price drivers and distinguishing the true from false. It is not always clear, but we can cherry pick the maximum clarity trades. On JCP and the YM you ignored the flow of money because you were confident in your price drivers and that TA couldn't call the future. Supply and demand is the irresistible force that drives price in all walks of life and trading is no different, but the trick is to fool the maximum amount of people at the highest point of optimism or pessimism. This is why when you get so optimistic you double up you are most vulnerable without TA to help see beneath the hype. Unfortunately you never learned real TA so your ability to evaluate it seems predicated on failed Gann astrology. That is not the place to build a systematic approach to TA and it could be a real asset to evaluating your numbers, not with hindsight, but with foresight.
I note that surf has not yet announced the exit of his CL trade. Good thing he's only using play dollars.