That's a really good way to describe TA. The cause here was a technical price driver and the effect is continuing...
Splendid. Since you now have science by the tail, do be sure to let us know from time to time the net effect of these remarkable price drivers on your trading account. Being the man of science that you are.
Please advise which portion of my post was "negation." I only detect "negation" in your unwillingness to respond to simple and reasonable questions and requests, this being a "trading journal" and all. You assert the use of science but do not appear to employ it in the most rudimentary performance measurement of your drivers: their net effect on your trading account. Why is that? I did not open this door, marketsurfer. You did. You always do.
I think his strategy is not to mention his losing trades like CL, and only talk about his winning trades if he has any so far.
"COT, money flows and insider activity" Isn't there a significant lag in the reporting of these particular components of your "driver"? Not unlike the lag in traditional "indicators", if I may be so bold as to use that analogy. And you poo poo on patterns as not being "predictive". Who is to say that your driver components are any more predictive? And If they are, aren't they in effect showing a "pattern" of sorts themselves? (I don't use any of those traditional indicators myself)
For the most part I would think so. At least minimizing their usefulness if not eliminating it all together. In his defense, some components like money flows and insider activity do(if I'm not mistaken) tend to act on prices over some time. Since these tend to represent investors/swing traders rather than short term "day traders".
If you think of it, people almost always base their current actions upon their previous actions, if it wasn't so, experience would mean nothing, but as we all know, experience is one of the top priority tools in natural selection and individual decision making. So when you look at past prices, not only you can statistically conclude what can happen next, but also what others conclude and how they are likely to react to this information.
How the hardcore quant shops are describing the market today: http://www.automatedtrader.net/head...ts-say-about-modelling-for--emotional-markets surf