Our analysis of Price Drivers remains solidly bullish for the YM dec contract. Holding Longs at this time.
Hey Lucrum, I probably missed it but what exactly are price drivers. I'm not going to start using them, just curious.
Sure. Unlike traditional analysis that uses pass price data, which we find ridiculous, for the most part, Price Driver looks at and attempts to quantify the factors that actually move price ( prior to it moving) into a cohesive whole. Things like COT, the book, news, economic events, special situations, money flows, insider activity and even rumors are all Price Drivers. These items among others are boiled down into a 1 to 10 scale with 5 being neutral. Above 5, bullish pressure, below 5 bearish pressure. Predictions and or trades are entered with the bias created by the PD analysis. TA on the other hand only deals with past price that has no influence on the future regardless of the rhetoric and anecdotal claims. Hope this explains the idea.
I trade based on all that, too, but rather than try to guess what those factors will cause price to do, I let the price movement itself, as it's being driven, trigger my trade entries.
An interesting enough concept and or theory Aren't all of these pretty much done so in "hind sight"? As in past tense/already happened. Or are you predicting the COT, news, money flows and insider activity in advance? Are you charting money flows and COT data?
Very good point Lucrum, all those are history and are or should be reflected in the price at the moment.
No, i don't do any charting of the Price Drivers. Yes, obviously, the Price Drivers could not be measured had they not occurred first. However, these things happen PRIOR to price moving from their concerted efforts. TA tries to follow price only, We assert that once price occurs, it's simply too late. TA simply draws a map of what has happened, whereas Price Driver style analysis project and tries to predict how price will be affected. Starting from the obvious misnomer that patterns repeat and the past predicts the future-- Price Driver doesn't use price patterns or past price but rather those items that cause price to move-- this places the method ahead of the curve-- where TA traders follow, PD traders lead. This is the first time PD's have been quantified and weighed into an index like product to create biases based on fact and science rather than pretty charts and other delusions. Following clearly doesn't work, and if it does, its way way sub optimal by its very definition. surf
I think it's cute that you think you can use a series of weighted price drivers to quantify and preordain the effect on price. Since you have yet to do so, perhaps one day you'll even be able to quantify the net effect of your trades on your account. I'll keep my fingers crossed.