Surf's Special Situation Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by marketsurfer, Aug 4, 2012.

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  1. Brass

    Brass

    Speaking of evolution, how's your ROE YTD? This being a journal, and all.
     
    #281     Sep 13, 2012
  2. Funny how paths fork. My mentor about 30 yrs back was a Gann man and a millionaire then when that meant something. He's still trading in his 80's and making over 100% pa.

    He stuck with a pretty simple Gann method, nothing crazy, no astrology. Based it on time and price and that's where I learned how time controls a move in any time frame and developed my own ideas.

    I guess you met the wrong guy. An example of that is Robert Miner of Dynamic Traders. Robert had great ideas about timing that made him man of the year and everyone and his dog was following Dynamic Traders. Then he almost crashed but now he is well on the way up again.

    The problem was that Robert's TA had a flaw just like many algos are discovered to have a flaw and needs to be adjusted to new market conditions. Robert's problem was simple and I said he would blow up before he dropped hard. His method was amazingly precise for about 18 months but it was all based on linear time cycles.

    I had spent years developing different kinds of non linear cycle ideas because I knew time is not linear - it just appears so. Hurst was the key man here. Eventually the bigger cycle hit in and all Miner's linear time cycles crashed.

    Does that prove TA doesn't work? No more than the 1500 algo HF's that crashed proves algo's don't work. It is never the majority of failures that prove something doesn't work: it is the smaller number of successes that prove the failures got it wrong and the idea was correct.

    You actually met a multimillionaire TA trader who posts here, but you didn't know who he was, and he didn't feel inclined to say. Janis and I trade with him and he makes so much money from 2 MA's and a stochastic for the past 20+ years that he is a major funder for, well I can't say without betraying a confidence.

    TA works - you just been around the wrong guys Surf.
     
    #282     Sep 13, 2012
  3. Excellently stated.

     
    #283     Sep 13, 2012
  4. Ok, interesting. I am looking forward to meeting these mystery men/women who only seem to exist on the internet and behind many layers of supporters. What I have witnessed and experienced first hand is TA success is due to luck and it simply doesn't make sense. NO ONE I have met first hand knowledge of, up and down the food chain, believes TA is a viable method outside of internet aliases and vendors with vested interest. Sorry, thats just been my experience in and around the market. surf

    PS-- remember, i actively seek these things out--
     
    #284     Sep 13, 2012
  5. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Bingo!!! TA is king!! Triggered by the Feds, but based on the built up before the announcement... SPX rallied 10 pts....
     
    #285     Sep 13, 2012
  6. Please post your calls on your own journal. Following the "surf journal" then Cheer leading TA. as if it was your call, is not welcomed on this thread. Thank you
     
    #286     Sep 13, 2012
  7. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Hey, at least I explained why price should move that certain way, instead of calling it Price driver or what the hell.

    But I understand, you have no arguments against successful TA and I will honor your request...
     
    #287     Sep 13, 2012
  8. SURF ALERT, SURF ALERT

    We are closing the YM trade at 13488, booking 155 points of pure profit, as projected with the Price Driver system. Going flat here.

    surf

    PS-- holding JCP short.
     
    #288     Sep 13, 2012
  9. wtg surf, you bagged that one :)
     
    #289     Sep 13, 2012
  10. thanks! waiting for the next Price Driver set up.

    surf
     
    #290     Sep 13, 2012
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