The concept of proven technical analysis will never happen both for the price drivers and any method that doesn't manage $100 billion. Its conclusivity is a tack that every talking head takes so that they aren't that embarassed when their DOW 15,000 call from 13 years ago finally comes true. 5% on the index, few days. It's like if I can't get 100 contracts of NQ to follow me, I'm not making money.
I have 5 holy grails... sorry, systems. One of them requires time travel, and the other 4 just make money. But yes, it enhances my pairs trades during optimal oscillatory periods in the market. I remember the +$5800 joke in these threads earlier and I know that that was a direct reference to my trading on worldcupadvisor. +about 10% this week, and particularly one of the days this week I recall a $3000 runup in my base unit in 2 hours or about 12% per unit on RBOB. The question is true, I do use it, but haven't for awhile as there haven't been trades that the real-time version was taking all the while logging losses in the simulations but performing 500% better in live trading so I'm as much confused about the capacity for that system to produce profit as to whether my risk management strategies are less than 50% drawdown.
Ok, thanks. How did you end up in world cup advisor contest? I have not followed that for awhile but remember you were top ranked at one time.... surf
I was not in the contest; they put me onto the advisory team since I was already a professional and didn't have to go through the vetting process one would normally have to go through to do that. If you go to the site I am on the hot list still.
I read #2 in some book, forgot which one exactly, but I am pretty sure I did. There was an episode about a big sugar trader who was told about TA patterns and then called the floor and asked to sell (or buy) decent amount to prove how price can easily change by the actions of a single person. This is a flawed argument against TA though, because it doesn't matter how many players cause the move. A move is a move and I have yet to hear about a sane hedge fund manager who just yells "buy!" or "sell!". Rather if he concluded he wants to buy or sell a certain instrument he would (almost have no doubts about it) instruct his traders to do that and professional traders execute large orders in a manner which possibly doesn't move the market against them too much... exactly the behavior us, day traders deliberately look for and are happy to see. Not sure about #4, you know better what they do or don't use. Now as for your point on FX. Do you claim that based on news outcome one can objectively quantify where exactly and how much price would move with probability of "x", correct?
"I believe this type of celebration of the trader is signaling a near term top in the US equity index markets. Market fever is so wide spread, Ciro Cipriani has installed 2 near life size wall street bulls outside his downtown location in Soho. One is in antique gold and the other in platinum, it will be interesting to see how long these remain during any type of market correction." marketsurfer 2007 http://www.marketsurfer.com/?p=716