I demonstrated you 50+ consecutive live, third party verified trades upon request, demonstrated probably hundreds of trades (many of those called in advance in live chat) to other people before (including old-time ET members from around the world, some of whose participate in this thread too)... won't argue that approach is probably flawed and is not optimal, but it works! Surf, it is possible, it is not a matter of lucky streak, you are missing the reality chance here, not TA traders... imagine that you could do the same and really make great profits in the markets instead of writing about them.
Funny, last two pages are 80% people who witnessed my trades and whom I saw trade and grow from newbies to decent, consistently profitable traders trading serious size.... using approach quite different from my own to analyze the market, but nevertheless very successful in application of TA. Thread is being hijacked.
Here you are, repeating same old stuff which is soooo boring and not exciting... work hard, go with the trend, cut losses and ride winners... One good point Mr. Gallacher made in his book, that systematic trading is indeed very boring and few traders are able to cope with it. So true!
You and I both know that's quite an ambiguous statement. Trend where ? If a small timeframe then it's changing almost constantly, it's fast change makes talking about it rather short lived, so why talk about it? If a larger timeframe then it might be less important to say a scalper or daytrader. If using multiple timeframes, trends colliding. I can complicate it even more, but I think you get my point, suggesting to trade with the trend is a rather empty suggestion. The rest of the post is well written and loaded with good suggestions as per your usual, but whenever I read the "Dont fight the trend and trend is your friend" posts I can't help to butt in
Trends interlock on adjcent fractals. The ratio is 3 to 1. It is not a good idea to analyze different timeframes. On any time frame it is possible to observe more then 2 fractals. Faster fractals (as defined by events happening) are always inside slower fractals. This means a lot of additional degrees of freedom are possible mathematically, than just the flow of real time information., Post a chart of the two market variables (V and P) and their relationship is obvious.
It's often 3 fractals but without multiple time frames that will remain a mystery. The 1 min, 2 min and 3 min all differ in structure and jumping from 1 min to 5 min leaves vital gaps in information. These gaps are compounded when you're locked in the CW of linear time. This is basic TA 101 that linear time predictions have to fail hence the FTT in your channels. Come on Jack, I'm giving you the clues... test it!
I would make it as simple as possible: trend is a trend on whatever "main" timeframe you trade. Changes several times in a day? So what, trade them all. If though one's intention is increase odds even more in her favor, it's possible to wait till smaller TF trend "agrees" with the larger trend either in the form of classic pullback (we then look for a trend reversal on smaller TF and a rollover into a larger TF trend continuation) or larger trend simply "supports" the smaller trend direction (in case we buy the strength and sell the weakness and/or smaller trend pullbacks).
I believe TA is nothing more that luck. Cornix and I met about 6 yrs back and I trade live with him every day. He's been on a lucky winning streak for those 6 years now. I think his TA dice is loaded On and off I've looked at surf's predictions over the same period and if performance and consistency is a platform to speak from, guess who should shut up and listen to whom? But if you're fishing, then the TA doesn't work mantra will never change.