You can always pick out examples of TA tools working--- the same examples can be shown on random charts--the bottom line is, despite all this talk of probabilities, the odds of a certain pattern increasing probabilities of a continuation or correction CAN NOT be measured or quantified. This is enough in and of itself to dismiss TA as a viable method, anecdotal evidence aside. surf
Thank you for being cordial, mr. Brass. You can not use terms like probabilities and low risk without being able to measure and quantify. If I am correct, as you state, what value does TA have, aside from illustration and rhetoric? surf
You didn't like it when I posted the TA winners who manage billions Surf. These guys measure it, quantify it and manage billions using it. Of course as you say, it is not retail TA. How would you propose such a successful measurement and quantifying of TA would be done. Would you suggest the TA winners sit down with some scientists and give them the winning formula so they can say, Hey everyone TA works! And of course I posted several scientific studies that show TA works but there was no comment on that. Get real Surf, no one is EVER going to sit down with one of your quant friends who can't see into next week and give them the golden goose. So until then all you have as proof is what I am about to post to answer your statement.
You can always pick out examples of Price Driver working.... The bottom line is, you are overgeneralizing about TA. TA is huge, some of them work some don't. P.S.: Since you like probabilities, the 2nd gap rule has a 90% win ratio, and it has been forward tested in the ES Journal for the last 3 years... So we only need one black swan, I mean TA tool to prove you to be a tool.
Here are 2 pages of links and examples I posted of TA managing billions, track records of many years of successful TA trading, scientific papers... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3620874#post3620874 That is to say nothing of traders I know who trade huge positions intraday using TA. One guy frequently day trades 20,000 ES contracts. Do you think these guys are interested in proving anything to anyone. One of them said, Why do you bother posting on ET? There is one reason: I hope it might encourage some folks to be creative, never give up and don't believe the failures. Once again Surf, show me an example of your TA skills that back up your assertion that TA is random. Pick a chart with a great buy signal that fails and let me see how developed your TA is that supports your convictions. We both know every TA signal can't work so that should be an easy one for you.
You are majorly misled. Jim Simons and Steve Cohen don't use TA --- neither does Tudor Jones for that matter, any longer. I guess if you just keep saying the same thing over and over again, it may come true? surf
What does majorly mean - most or least? You are disputing 3 out of many. Doesn't that mean you are majorly mislead I guess if you keep saying the same thing they will all stop using TA and those with outstanding records will recant heehee. Come on Surf, show me an example of failed TA. I have asked you on 3 threads for some time - let's nail down a great example of a powerful TA signal that doesn't work. According to you that's easy - it's getting one that works (like JCP) that is hard.