Surf's Special Situation Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by marketsurfer, Aug 4, 2012.

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  1. If anything was absolutely repeatable, the market couldn't exist. There are super computers and teams of PhD;s looking for that-- once found its immediately exploited then the pattern changes. surf
     
    #2171     Jan 23, 2013
  2. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Automating what I do using context filters would require quite complex coding and a great deal of time. The ATS is based on my core concepts, not the advanced stuff I do now, manually.

    I compiled statistical data surrounding "tradable" price swings (price swings of N ticks or more). I found certain price action footprints that led into these price swings and I found a few that repeated often enough that the odds were tilted favorably (55% or better). I took the ones with the highest odds and used MFA and MFE stats to create trading rules for maximum stops and minimum targets. I applied the rules to every appearance of these setups and saw that by doing this exclusively and precisely, it resulted in consistent and significant profitability.

    There was nothing to curve fit. The stats helped me create rules and the following the rules resulted in consistent daily profit. The key was to trade every appearance of a setup that was triggered by specific price action. Many traders can't surmount that difficulty and so they will need to automate their plan. I struggled terribly until my core plan was automated and I saw what it did each day, I heard the system signaling a trade entry and I would cringe and think "It's not gonna work, feels really weak here..." and at the end of the week it had worked. That finally convinced me of the importance of just following the rules like a good little kindergartner :cool:
     
    #2172     Jan 23, 2013
  3. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Then how do you explain the FACT that the same patterns that existed decades ago are still repeating today?
     
    #2173     Jan 23, 2013
  4. cornix

    cornix

    Never absolutely. With enough probability to justify trading it, yes.

    And you are right, PhD's look for them... some even trade them. :D
     
    #2174     Jan 23, 2013
  5. what ones are those? I betcha you can't even define one in a testable format. If so, please do, it will be a revolutionary change.
    surf
     
    #2175     Jan 23, 2013
  6. Someone's got their head in the sand :)
     
    #2176     Jan 23, 2013
  7. I made this clear years ago, but I guess its important to say again

    I am speaking strictly of the stock market and stock index futures. I have not tested currencies or commodities--- but I do know, there is no inherent upward drift in either. surf
     
    #2177     Jan 23, 2013
  8. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    I've seen you spout this nonsense many times before.
    We're talking about markets, represented by its value/price. Which is a number, that can only do one of three things at any given time. Increase decrease or remain the same.
     
    #2178     Jan 23, 2013
  9. How is it nonsense?
     
    #2179     Jan 23, 2013
  10. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    "We're talking about markets, represented by its value/price. Which is a number, that can only do one of three things at any given time. Increase decrease or remain the same."


    Ergo recognizable repeating patterns are inevitable.
     
    #2180     Jan 23, 2013
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