Surf's Special Situation Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by marketsurfer, Aug 4, 2012.

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  1. Nice going. But I am more interested in the trades you took today that didn't win. thanks, surf
     
    #2151     Jan 22, 2013
  2. So far only 3 trades. That one (was two trades) and another that was +.08. So 2/3 so far today

     
    #2152     Jan 22, 2013
  3. Ok, thanks. By the way, the H club looks like a cool place. Let me if it lives up to the hype.

    surf
     
    #2153     Jan 22, 2013
  4. tobbe

    tobbe

    Surf, you are jumping to conclusions. That is not what CF wrote and once again you avoided to answer a simple question.

    I must say this journal is rather amusing to read, thanks for keeping it going :p .
     
    #2154     Jan 22, 2013
  5. I'll let you know if it's worth checking out :)

     
    #2155     Jan 22, 2013
  6. That's how I interpreted CF's words. Care to clarify what he meant?

    surf
     
    #2156     Jan 22, 2013
  7. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    Two thumbs up
     
    #2157     Jan 22, 2013
  8. tobbe

    tobbe

     
    #2158     Jan 22, 2013
  9. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    I saw several price patterns that appeared to produce significant price swings. I decided to analyze the results of every appearance of these patterns and pinpoint contextual clues that improved the chance of a pattern moving at least X ticks in my favor before moving Y ticks against me. I calculated max favorable and adverse excursions, and once I had enough data collected through varying market conditions, I chose to run the highest probability patterns through contextual filters that eliminated low probability price environments. The end result was a specific set of rules for valid setups, entries, stops and targets.

    Al Brooks calls the formula for determining when to take a trade the Trader's Equation:

    "Chance of success times the reward is significantly greater than the chance of failure times the risk."

    Win rates and R:R are meaningless in isolation; it's the combination that matters.

    Defining my rules in a way that could be automated was the most useful thing I've done. I was able to refine my trading to an incredible level of precision. I also had to toss out some pet theories I had about odds of certain setups; I'd based these ideas on selective memory. When put to the test the hard stats were quite surprising.

    If you can't teach someone the rules of your system, it's probably a lot of art and very little science.

    Also, I personally had to have very strict rules because I was unable to apply the "art" of trading properly. I consistently hesitated on excellent setups, traded mediocre setups, moved stops to break even when statistically I was ruining my edge by doing it, etc. I'm very relaxed with super strict trading rules and very profitable with them.
     
    #2159     Jan 22, 2013
  10. +1

     
    #2160     Jan 22, 2013
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