Prove something... If you don't prove anything then just shut up... No point in you walking around like you're a successful trader and pretending like your success came from TA.
Someone once either asked me if that was my method or maybe they told me it appeared I used that method. I do remember that phrase "floor trader method", but I'm not familiar with the specifics. The chart you posted looks exactly like what I do. I certainly see those boxes as setups. Maybe in all my travels I re-invented a wheel I could've simply bought for cheap at "Trader's Depot"? :eek:
lol.. if ya corious about it .. here is it explained for free of course http://www.trading-naked.com/FloorTraderMethod.htm
"He was a millionaire and traded large positions, but he started his career with a small account. He made the millions from the market, using his methods, over several years." IMPOSSIBLE!! BULLSH*T!! SURF, CAN THIS BE TRUE????
On Day 1 of day trading, no one ever tells you not to expect to be right more than 40-50% of the time (including scratched trades because they are still risk taken) IF your plan is to make significantly more (on average) on the winning trades than the losing ones. So, at the start, your view of what is and is not possible is way off. This leads to what Mark Douglas calls "random rewards". You keep changing what your doing if it starts to lose more than what you expect (< 60% most likely...but what did I just say in the last paragraph???) . So you jump around from system to system and never succeed because random behavior cannot produce a positive expectancy LT (...duh!). There are traders out there working with 30% winning systems who can pull in 20-40x what they risk, but to the casual observer, they're emotionally unable to trade them because s/he doesn't get that "winning feeling" their ego desires anywhere near often enough. If any of the "you's" above are YOU, then do this. Assume you can only win with your system 40% of the time in the first place. Given that, the only thing which makes common sense is to keep your losses small relative to your winners...at least have a 1.5. to 1 RR ratio. Now you're closer to the REALITY of successful day trading performance. I've followed months of "TA doesn't work" arguments here and am pretty confident in saying that the ones who can't make it work are in the following top categories (no special order): 1. You're jumping from system to system so nothing can ever play out for you "like a casino"...random rewards 2. You believe you are trading a winning system just because some "guru" says it works and you never took the time to prove it for yourself so you wind up biasing your research because you wanted your "team" or "club" to succeed (cough cough...Woodies CCI Club... cough cough). 3. You have/had a winning system to start with but you cannot consistently apply it because you lose confidence if it doesn't meet your emotional need to win more often than it does. So, you try to "game" it by some "feel" in real-time to filter out the losers. This leads to cutting your winners short and poof!...there goes your winning system because you kept your losers the same size as always. The only "feel" in real-time that's consistently doable is getting better at defining when your market is trending up, down or sideways and in what degree of volatility (from more backing and filling to less). Forget about ANY system working for you if you can't get good at this. This, above all else FIRST, and THEN your research proven system can give you "the casino effect" of "boring" trading with long-term success. Beginners who want to strictly be trend traders would be far better off to let their first trend signal go and grab the next pullback. A lot of their first signals are fakes anyway because they're not good enough yet finding sideways to up/down transitions. They look back on their bad days and think, "why was I so emotionally biased to look for trends on such an obvious sideways trading day?". On the CL, at least, the sideways can be a chop-fest on a 5 min chart for the newbie trend seeker but still looks like GREAT trend trading opportunities to the lower timeframe scalper looking for 12-30 ticks. The difference between the experienced trader and the less is that the former can see a level of detail (in the sub-5 min price structure...yes some are 1 min charts but also tick, volume and range charts) on the pullbacks that still only looks like meaningless pogo stick-like price jumpings on a 5 min chart. The very first thing I look when exploring a new trading approach is: what do the winners look like? What's their typical MFE / MAE profile? Under what basic context(s) [i.e., up, down, sideways and what levels backing / filling within them] do they consistently work? For example, in his book, Brooks alluded to traders who are "always in the market". That is, they're flipping between short and long on a prolonged basis during the day. But, take that high-level idea and, instead, start looking at trading opportunities where exiting at your target is reliable enough to withstand a stop loss if you reversed at the target with X contracts more than is required to get you flat. On the order fill, you have a pre-planned bracket order (in the reverse direction) for the opposing target. Where the overwhelming majority of at-homers see nothing but the exit doors for the trade they're currently in, you see more opportunities to get extra (multiple) flips of 8-20 ticks in what would mostly appear as something too fast to respond to or complete noise to them...as the saying goes..."if you can't see it, you can't trade it". Just one example. The more positive you are and truly *enjoy* trading, the more likely you will see new ways of succeeding. Best line in the Douglas "Zone" book is that you cannot be in a creative state of mind unless you are willing to temporarily put your your personal belief systems aside. [Above is the kind of human-guided automated trading I believe in. I set up the 2 or 3 price segment scalping ping-pongs and the PC does what it does best...super fast with no indecision upon multiple executions.] Okay, sourpusses, carry on. One hundred of you aren't worth a 1/2 Donna.
This is it! Another Holy Grail! Holy Grails all over ET, but dagnabbit those Grails are so darn heeeeaaavvvvyy to lift and drink from! XXXOOO Steve is a real pro, by the way, not some snake oil guru like me
"was" is the operative term in that statement--- all joking aside, if that's true, he didn't get there by not taking huge risk that could have ended up the other way. In this game either you spend your life playing a video game eeking out a living without benefits, vacation or interaction with others--that is if you are extraordinarily fortunate to survive-- OR you take big risks for big rewards---- risk equals reward--- one must take risk, accept real risk or they will never make it past the video gamer stage-- there are millions to be made, many are in the right game, but playing it completely wrong. When i first started in the market, i hand drew charts from the ticker on FNN-- CNBC precursor-- spent hours upon hours learning the craft of TA hands on. It kinda worked-- but there was a fairly equal distribution of wins and losses-- but as long as i let the winners run, i would turn a profit--- then I realized that the same results would occur with nearly random entries-- my entire TA world came crashing down, i let my MTA membership expire, quit posting on clearstation and the other tA sites and decided to learn how the markets really worked. Fortunately, about this same time, a kind, learned ex academic speculator from CT,and one of the top ranked hedgies at the time, read something i wrote here on elite. He invited me to his manse to meet his trading team and family. Knowing that this guy taught my trading heroes like toby cr@bel and monr#e tro^t-- i jumped at the chance--- that initial meeting led to many others where i witnessed the actual index reacting to this team's trade-- they traded that large. I learned about the follies of TA and the way the market is designed to deceive and the benefits of applying the scientific method to trading. This initial relationship led to my being introduced to billion dollar hedge fund investors leading to my marketing business for niche funds, not to mention learning how the market really works from someone who walks the talk-- not just another alias on elite or a book. When I see things like the siberian psychologist, who just started in 2008 per his bio, trading micro accounts and managing perhaps 10k of OPM with FX dealers, i am encouraged by their passion and true belief-- but I also realize they are but infants when it comes to understanding how the market really works. Risk is is a prerequite to profits, what you make is proportional to your risk. risk can cut both ways-- there is no way around this fact. embrace it or be cursed to the video game lifestyle for the rest of your economic life. This is my truth, take it or leave it. all the best, surf PS-- i sincerely wish all the posters here the same opportunities & even love interest ---that have come my way from this site--- its an amazing resource-- don't waste it with petty arguing-- add value and my experience has been you will get it back 100 fold. with that said, thanks for reading the "surf report"--- i hope its been as entertaining and educational for you as it has been for me. Good bye for now-- i'll be back when there is something important to say--- <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/XI3c-22lL_s" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
You guys should watch this video.... It's the "Trader" video with Paul Tudor Jones... If it asks you for a password the password is "view"... <iframe src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/13411334" width="400" height="300" frameborder="0" webkitAllowFullScreen mozallowfullscreen allowFullScreen></iframe> http://www.trading-naked.com/ Watch carefully what he does... At the beginning around minute 7... He talks about selling 4 tankers worth of crude oil around the OPEC meeting... Enough size that people who know him at oil trading houses called him to find out who was selling. His trades matter, so he can play the game by actually impacting market psychology... Watch later when he tries to do the currency deal and the market moves against him just because he was doing big size. He cancels most of the deal. They saw him coming and decided to bail...