Thank you, nodoji. Is this one of the TA inspired tactics that you regularly use? surf PS-- can your personage be expected at the surf fest?
Some people are pretty consistent playing ORB even on such a choppy instrument as ES... NoD just gave away excellent idea, but I bet nobody will care as usual.
Just flip over to the ACD thread, Mav can most certainly help you out regarding OR breakouts. ACD method's bread and butter
Yes, it's a joke that will have you laughing all the way to the bank, as they say. However, instead of providing the punch line, I'm encouraging you figure it out. It should only take about 30 minutes and requires nothing more than a basic spreadsheet Surf, I'm usually positioned at the open or in advance of it, but if none of my other setups appeared and triggered an entry by the close of the opening bar, then this is indeed a regular trade for me. Regarding the Surf Fest, I cannot attend due to two other commitments.
Ah, so it was a joke that will have your followers going to the bank. No doubt to wire more money into their trading account. I think the punchline is you so confidently state your arbitrary entry rule like it's worth something while leaving as "homework" the things that matter more to a trade. You left out in the homework assignment knowing when to reverse when your entry rule gets a follower on the wrong side of the market, but the omission doesn't detract from the humor. The 30-minute spreadsheet suggestion is even funnier. I'm not into backtesting, but I'll bite. Okay, I have your very specific entry rule, but what are the other parameters that go into the spreadsheet? Oh right, that's the "homework" you assigned. LOL Your little entry rule is as useful as a coin flip, my dear. That is a good joke, but what's funniest of all is that there are people here like cornyforex who think you gave away something "excellent." In any case, I mean this all in fun and I wish you and your fans a happy Sunday.
I think the punchline is you so confidently state your arbitrary entry rule like it's worth something while leaving as "homework" the things that matter more to a trade. The entry could not be less arbitrary and you did realize this later in your post: Okay, I have your very specific entry rule, ...but what are the other parameters that go into the spreadsheet? Oh right, that's the "homework" you assigned. LOL I leave the homework to the individual because you are absolutely correct, it involves the things that matter more to a trade. I have no idea what minimum profit you desire on a trade, what reward/risk ratio you prefer, or whether you move stops to break even after a certain favorable price excursion. My friend trades a very similar ORB play and he uses a R:R ratio of 4:1. My ratio is closer to 2:1. He also places a wider stop than I do. He doesn't move his stop to break even until price hits a level that's significantly more than where I've already taken my profit. The setup, very similar at entry, yet very different in management, has produced net profitably for both of us for a long time. I'll give you a hint to get you started down the profitable path: Document the maximum favorable excursion (MFE) and maximum adverse excursion (MAE) of price for this particular ORB play over a period of at least 30 days and use that data to create a trade management plan for the times when an entry is triggered. This is the sort of work every trader should be doing before implementing a new strategy. You say you don't care for backtesting, but how do you determine whether a particular strategy can, over time, produce a profit or not? You left out in the homework assignment knowing when to reverse when your entry rule gets a follower on the wrong side of the market, but the omission doesn't detract from the humor. I do indeed have a rule for when to stop-and-reverse as opposed to simply stopping out for a loss and waiting for a new setup. My rule is that if one of my plan-based setups appears signaling a trade in the opposite direction of the trade I'm currently in, I will SAR at the trigger price for the new setup. It doesn't happen all that often. Your little entry rule is as useful as a coin flip, my dear. That is a good joke, but what's funniest of all is that there are people here like cornyforex who think you gave away something "excellent." Every individual trade is a coin flip. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. - Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone Fortunately, in the markets there are certain coins that land heads up more often than not. Cornix is a consistently profitable trader who has given away far more "excellence" here than any trader needs to earn a living trading. I once ignored the advice and the methods of consistently profitable traders and it cost me dearly. I eventually did the work (literally 10,000 hours of it now) and discovered that everything they told me was extremely valuable.
<b>Every individual trade is a coin flip.</b> Very interesting point, nodoji. Why does it not, then, stand to reason that a random entry not produce the same results, completely negating the role of TA on the entry? It is a contradiction to say this then say some coins are weighted toward heads. This is a disconnect which I suspect is at the root of TA interpretation of the markets. In other words, no matter what happens you are "correct". surf
Because although every individual trade is a coin flip, when you've identified an edge, the outcome of a sufficient number of trades in ones trading time frame is positive. Proper use of TA (analysis of past price action) to trigger trades in real time (via current price action) is like having a coin that lands heads up more often than not. If using a balanced coin, the odds of heads on the next toss are still 50/50 even if heads just turned up 7 times in a row. You can also be profitable with a pure coin toss (50/50) method as long as the payout on heads is greater than the cost paid if tails. Once you truly get your head around this and then do the homework necessary to create a plan, you will have a net profitable trading system as long as it's based on something that never changes (such as price movement, which goes up and down every day, week, month, year) and not a gimmick that could disappear at any time (such as someone feeding you inside information).
Thank you, nodoji CornixForex-- we just spent a very profitable afternoon with Dr. Brett Steenbarger, PTJ's trading psychologist-----among several others-- I believe you and he are in the same business. It was quite interesting. I debated mentioning the "crow" from Siberia, and decided against it --- Are you familiar with his work? surf