"Predicting", in the absence of a well-specified trigger with historical probability data backing it, is useless in general, but seems to be the thing that attracts most people to trading. Even once a trigger has fired, there is no way to predict the size of either the gain or the loss from the trade, although if you have a hard stop at the beginning of the trade and you're trading a liquid and orderly market, that would give you a very good idea of the largest possible loss. Even a profit target, if reached, might only represent a small fraction of the overall final potential of a trade, which is why designing an algorithm to extract as much as possible from the maximum favorable excursion is a much more robust trade management strategy than use of profit targets. Only at that one instant when your trigger is fired are you "predicting" anything and even then, you are only predicting in line with the historical probabilities. I think any other method of "predicting" is doomed to lead to ruin eventually, yet these other methods seem to be favored by 'dilettantes'. I had to learn this lesson and it was definitely part of the tuition the market charged me for my eduction.
Uhh, this is a thread <i>about</i> Surf's predictive capabilities, started by someone named "Pekelo," not by me.
Well, gosh, Rod that may very well be true but that doesn't mean you should be posting links to another site which Surfer writes on. Shifting blame or responsibility won't work. In the end, your links have been taken down because posting them wasn't allowed in the first place. Have a great day!
If you actually want to make the world a better place by policing the site... Over the weekend a spammer started ~10 different threads to post anti-Semitic material... would have been nice if those threads had been removed promptly, but they weren't. Where were you? As to Surf, the idea he's "spamming" makes no sense. I've visitied the sites he writes for, and he's not selling anything. No seminars, no books, no DVDs, no software. In fact -- ironically -- he was the only member of the ET community with the courage to call out an authentic stealth vendor lurking on the site who cowed everyone else into silence via offline threats. Only Surf stood up and spoke the truth.
Sorry guys, I haven't been reading the replies, but today seems to be a good day to check on the prediction portfolio: Assuming we put even money on all 3 predictions: 1. We are almost back to the predicted 3-4% end of year range, so an option spread (profit maximized when in the 3-4% range) would have a nice 5 months time decay. Let's count it low, a 10% profit. (atticus can give us a better estimate) 2. From 95 down to 67.3 right now, that is about 29% profit. This position did have a big DD though, but only on 1/3 of the whole capital. 3. From 19 went to the predicted 10, position closed, profit was 47%. So averaging the profits of the 3 position: (10+29+47)/3 = 28.6% I think 28% profit in 5 months with a max. DD of 10% (it was about 30% on 1/3rd of capital) isn't too shabby as predictions go, considered that this was a non-correlated, diversified portfolio. Hey Surf, how are your predictions going? I am too lazy to do the math...
> We are almost back to the predicted 3-4% end of year range, > so an option spread (profit maximized when in the 3-4% > range) would have a nice 5 months time decay. Let's count it low, a 10% profit. LOL
What was so funny, did I count the profits too low??? By the way today, we are back in the 3-4%... NFLX is still dying today, under $64 already. Surf you know very well how to use the Quote button, knock off this > shit.
NFLX is at 53.6, let's close it here, because it might bounce back, and I don't care about that 3-4$ left to 50, although I am sure it will tick below $50 eventually. So that is about 43% profit realized on that short. In my little portfolio only the last position is open....