Well, I didn't have a problem with reshorting after that bump, but that bump was good for 100 points after I posted. Nice holding it through. I would probably close the shorts here, because giant RSI divergence on the hourly chart and you got 300 points out of it. By the way I also predicted this going down in the Augur thread, except just like Surf, I was 5 days early, thus I counted that prediction as a bad one. Timing is everything in trading. But I never had 3 strong sell signals in a row, like 2 weeks ago... Hm, thinking of it, maybe Surf was using that prediction to leg into the trade... Edit: I just saw you closed the shorts, good job!
First off, I ain't knocking marketsurfer's journals nor his trading; it's his journal and he reveals what he pleases, and so far I've never known him to be egregiously inconsistent. If there's any right a good trader has, it's the right to change his mind when he thinks necessary. All I'd say on this topic is that you really cannot know whether or not a trade is a "good" one in terms of risk/reward, or whether a trader just got "lucky", by just looking at entries and exits. The same trade that makes a macro trader look like a fortune-telling sage can make a kamikaze top-calling swing trader look like a complete imbecile, if a lucky one at that. If surfer thinks a certain scenario to the markets will play out in the following six months or so, scaling in somewhat early may be the most prudent course anyone could think of to exploit that opinion. He's mentioned often enough the need for proper position management, but unless he is giving exact proportions along with max risk #'s, there is no point in trying to mimic his style or adapt something here to one's own trading. Sorry for the sudden spewage, I think I drank too much home-brewed arnold palmer this morning. Nice trading today!
Congratulations on the YM trade, surf. I'm sure it feels good to finally be in the green as we head into the typically unexciting summer months. I'm sorry the year has been so rough on you and your clients. However, I was wondering about the absolute Tues eod time stop. I reread all of your posts since you posted the absolute time stop, and nowhere did I see you scrap it. The closest thing I can see is your post last evening around 7:30 pm that you were going to hold the YM shorts until Wednesday. Until I saw that post, I presumed that you had followed thru with your system's readings and closed the short position as you had stated you would. Other than that post, all of the "continuing to hold" {paraphrased} posts were part and parcel to your strategy. Perhaps you could direct me to the post where you scrapped the time stop idea so that I can better understand your trading process. TIA.
Great post illiquid, I mean "... trade that makes a macro trader look like a fortune-telling sage can make a kamikaze top-calling swing trader look like a complete imbecile" is a treasure (and all too true) in and of itself. But I didn't say that I was here to attempt to "Parrot", Surf's technique or trading style (on my level, I wouldn't want to even "go there", I'd just have my @$$ handed to me) when I talked about "learning from my betters", I was thinking of this: *** 05-10-06 09:44 AM sitting tight here, holding position short. best wishes, surfer *** ... among about, a gazillion others, but I'll stick with that one for now. Best Regards, Jimmy P.S. Bitstream was right when he said that you can trade and type at the same time, you just have to make sure you keep your eye on what's most important.
Poor us,we want everything documented,put in it's proper place,no fudging.you might have had a nice call,show me proof,what's your sister's real name.give it a rest.
... and I've stopped trading for the day, but this looks to me like a, oh 15 or 20 pt meltdown (in the S&P emini's, but you get the idea across the board), classic bear style rip'em to shreds and put blood on the streets, and I just don't see the bottom forming ... what exactly are you looking at that makes you feel a bottom is forming? Best, Jimmy
Classic over reaction to a number and with Volatility levels "High" it would be easy for a snap back ! Who knows though? I was just warnining of the possibility IF surf where still in a position. I've made my $$$ on the original set up short as well so it doesn't matter to me at this point.
Oh, OK, I see what you mean , thanks for the insight. We've been used to extremely low vol for the past three years or so, makes you kinda wonder when the days of seeing 25, 30 or 40 in the VIX/VXO are going to come back ... Jimmy
on my way to the beach. its going to be very telling over the next several days in the vix. thanks for posting the perspective! surfer