Here it is: Thread Title:Marketsurfer's bold gold proclamation 04-01-08 10:01 PM Gold is finished. gold will be sub 600 by 4.1.2009. The hype is over, the selling shall continue as large metallic holdings continue to be unwound. suggested shorting at 955, keep holding as the ride has just begun. surf http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=123557&highlight=gold
I wouldn't mind trying short at or near a retest of 1540. But not randomly.. The other idea I have for the short theory (if we are in fact super bearish) is to just sit on my hands and wait for an obvious entry somewhere between now and 1540, just in case it doesn't make it up there. Bull side, I still think 1320 provides current uptrend support. Thus, technically, I am ambivalent since we are in no-man's land currently. It is certainly not out of the question for us to go up from here in some form or fashion, taking out 1540 etc along the way. I'd rather try to play either side when the opportunity presents itself. But, since the prevailing trend is down, at least for the time being, I'd be looking for short entries (preferably higher than current level..obviously). For me, anyway, it's just tough because the fact that we held 1320 in a very controlled fashion indicates possible demand. The whole thing is quite obviously very controlled, anyway, so I just want to hop along for the ride, either way, and not get run over if my guess/prediction/bias is wrong. Super long term support is in the 575 - 700 range (would need to fine tune, and could take a number of years to get there.. or maybe not.. that's not part of my system). Breaking 1320 would certainly help confirm a more direct move in that direction. Until then I'm waiting for resistance to get short. Good trading to all.
Who gives a flying frell whether someone made a prediction, good or bad? Trading is about managing risk and if you were stupid enough to martingale beyond your risk controls into a loser, that's your own problem to work out. This is just my view, but in that case if I were bearish, I'd rather have said, "I think short is a good play here. Here's my resistance area around which I will manage risk in case the market proves me wrong."
I have an admission to make. I need to come clean about my motivations for the bold gold call back in 2009. Enough time has past that I feel comfortable with this confession. I was heavily short the metal at the time thus I was talking my book more than the reality of the market. Secondly, my ex best friend became a multi millionaire in several months in the gold business and I was quite jealous of his rapid success. Both these factors ( combined with an out of control ego, at the time from some trading successes)created my obsession with doing what I could to disparage the bullish move. I realize this sounds ridiculous but it was my truth at the time of the call. surf
LOL! No, just admitting that I was overly influenced by the wrong factors when making the bold gold call.
Southall: Thanks. You are correct. That's what I get for preparing a spreadsheet while sipping wine. Here is a corrected report. I'm using the Yahoo GC gold symbol for Friday's closing price. Corrected update to last week's post. It's a bit difficult to track Surf (perhaps impossible), but here's what I think he is doing. Because Surf does not define his closing time for futures I'm using Yahoo Finance closing prices to avoid confusion as to time and source. 4/15 Close 4/3 Crude 10 long (stopped out @89.90) 4/15 Open Short 10 YG @1372 (Price per post, size per JackR calculation\guesstimate) 4/15 Open Short 5 YM @14661 (Price and size based on JackR calculation since only clue is Surf post of 151 point profit and previous YM size) Current Positions Herbalife (HLF)-- Short.....Used 4/01 (H-L)/2 = $37.25. 1000 shares 4/1 Short 37.25 = $37,250 4/12 Close 37.38 = $37.380 Down $130 4/19 Close 35.78 = $35,780 Up $1,470 Fifth Street Financial (FSC) -- Long...Used 4/01 (H-L)/2 = 11.01 5000 shares FSC went ex-dividend on 4/11/13 $.096 so adjusted cost basis to $10.91 4/1 Long 10.91 = $54,550 4/12 Close 10.76 = $53,800 Down $750 4/19 Close 10.58 =$52,900 Down $1,650 Educational Realty Trust(EDR) -- Long Used 4/01 (H-L)/2 = 10.47 5000 shares 4/01 Long 10.47 = $52,350 4/12 Close 11.00 = $55,000 Up $2,650 4/19 Close 10.75 = $53,750 Up $1,400 Dow Mini (YM)(YMM13.CBT) Short 5 YM $14661 4/15 Short 14661 = $366,525 4/19 Close 14469 = $361,725 Up $4,800 Gold Mini (YG)(GCM13.CMX) -- Short 10 YG $1372 4/15 Short 1372 = $455,500 4/19 Close 1393 = $462,476 Down $6972 All Open Positions as of 4/19 = Down $952 All Closed Positions as of 4/19 Down $54,800 10 CL Loss ($4100) 10 CL Loss ($50,700) YM $34 binary call option. Loss, but no further info. Jack
But...if you were "heavily" short gold at the time then you MUST have been very bearish and, hence, you must have thought gold was going to decline in value. So proclaiming this in the form of a "bold gold call" isn't really all that strange. I'm more interested in this "ex best friend" situation. Why are you no longer friends?