been there, wine selection is pretty good, but the steaks are not all that great... there are better steak houses in the city...
Surf, the comment about nobody having quantified "pd"s or fundamental variables isn't true. I've pulled the S&P500 dataset off of Fidelity before with every variable they have about each company, and if you account for the size of each percentage, you'll get an R^2 above 92%. I've done this before, but in a time series nothing like that yet. You put the variable market capitalization onto each variable and the size of the ratios will yield fits this close to the current value. Computing what they should be or ought to be before I'd accounted for the size of the company gave some pretty good trades, though. Basically whatever the value of each company was supposed to be came out as a market capitalization that you knew from logarithmic regression what the percentages from their previous value are being valued at and possibly moving toward. Anyway, yes, it has been done before, and probably in a lot more sophisticated fashion than I am describing, except for the backtesting of this.
What's your favorite place to grab a steak in NYC? Wolfgangs is one of the three best in the city IMO, although the best steak I've had recently was at Sparks.
I've heard the same about sparks... need to make the time to go there for sure... in no specific order, the more consistent steaks I've had (and yummy as hell) have been at Porter House, Peter Lugers, Benjamins and Capital Grille(Midtown).. and I say consistent bc the issue with Wolfgangs over in Murray Hill is that sometimes it is good, others it is not... the one in Tribeca is more consistent... while we are at it... best sushi(to me at least)... Soto, Sakagura and Bond Street... best Cuban (close enough)... Havana and Cuba (but make sure to pay cash, I've had my business card compromised after I dine there every time, so great food, but risky with plastic)
Surf, actually the markets remain the same, but the PLAYERS change. I've got a question for ya? Why 10 contracts? If you're not consistently profit, why not 1 contract, or even better, in SIM? Actually, after I get to a level where the money is OK for me, I stop trading live. I just mark up my charts and see which trades work out and which one gets stopped out. Call it "system evaluation". To me, position size is one of the MOST important factors. I've been telling my wife daily for the last almost a year that she HAS/NEEDS to open a forex account to learn how to trade. In her case, she's very risk adverse. The optimum position size for her is maybe 1 or 2 mini-lots. I figure trading off the daily charts she can probably bag around a $1k/month. That's 1k that will help her dramatically since she works little and her salary is very bad. People in this country crack me up. They say what I'm doing is sooooo risky. Then they turn around and open a business that ends up closing and they lose everything.
Steaks are best in Greeenwich. Much more costly. But that is just the East. Try a steak at the Mine Shaft in Denver. It is not in the phone book and people let other people use their table when avaible. Further north, in Wyoming, there is a small town near the airport in Lander (Where my hanger used to be). The real Marlboro Man was discovered in the bar of the great restaurant that Hollywood and airline wealth visit. (commonly we all had our own planes). Hudson is the town and ET doesn't know the restaurant. It begins with S. Google Bob Six .... lol .... We supplied cubed alfalfa to Tokyo out of Montana (courtesy of Mike Mansfield); the so fed beaf went to what famous steakhouse?
Was in BBQ with friends for lunch, some that are quite familiar with trading, enough to get a kick out of this Surf story guy. Could not help explaining to them what's going on with this guy, the decades, the struggle, the attitude. So it begins.... Check this guys out, he claims TA is crap, does not work, he is certified in this and that, and just swears about it's inefficiency. Ok now check what he does, instead of TA, he pumps his own technique, some crap called Price Drivers as superior and the bomb. Now check his calls and performance combined with his hatred for TA and his condescending attitude. The crowd burst laughing and goes wild! Thank you surf for the autobiography of a true joker! TRUE STORY!
I agree with you on the consistency factor. I've only been to Sparks once but the steak I had (Prime Strip) was sublime. Of course, next time I go it may not be as consistent. I've only been to Wolfgangs twice but it's been top notch each time. Went to Porterhouse last year and just thought it was so/so. Ordered a bottle of Bordeaux from 98 and the waiter poured the whole thing into the decanter, paying no mind to separating the sediment. That ticked me off, since the bottom 1/5 of the decanter was undrinkable. I thought the steak was just average as well. Ironically I've never been to Lugers but I hear that it's overrated. Service being the number one complaint. I guess when you are ranked so highly for steak quality, the wait staff doesn't feel compelled to give good service. I want to go at least once to try the porter house though.
Below is an update to last week's post. It's a bit difficult to track Surf (perhaps impossible), but here's what I think he is doing. Because Surf does not define his closing time for futures I'm using Yahoo Finance closing prices to avoid confusion as to time and source. 4/15 Close 4/3 Crude 10 long (stopped out @89.90) 4/15 Open Short 10 YG @1372 (Price per post, size per JackR calculation\guesstimate) 4/15 Open Short 5 YM @14661 (Price and size based on JackR calculation since only clue is Surf post of 151 point profit and previous YM size) Current Positions Herbalife (HLF)-- Short.....Used 4/01 (H-L)/2 = $37.25. 1000 shares 4/1 Short 37.25 = $37,250 4/12 Close 37.38 = $37.380 Down $130 4/19 Close 35.78 = $35,780 Up $1,470 Fifth Street Financial (FSC) -- Long...Used 4/01 (H-L)/2 = 11.01 5000 shares FSC went ex-dividend on 4/11/13 $.096 so adjusted cost basis to $10.91 4/1 Long 10.91 = $54,550 4/12 Close 10.76 = $53,800 Down $750 4/19 Close 10.58 =$52,900 Down $1,650 Educational Realty Trust(EDR) -- Long Used 4/01 (H-L)/2 = 10.47 5000 shares 4/01 Long 10.47 = $52,350 4/12 Close 11.00 = $55,000 Up $2,650 4/19 Close 10.75 = $53,750 Up $1,400 Dow Mini (YM)(YMM13.CBT) Short 5 YM $14661 4/15 Short 14661 = $366,525 4/19 Close 14469 = $361,725 Up $4,800 Gold Mini (YG)(GCM13.CMX) -- Short 10 YG $1372 4/15 Short 1372 = $45,550 4/19 Close 1393 = $46,248 Down $698 All Open Positions as of 4/19 = Up $5,322 All Closed Positions as of 4/19 Down $54,800 10 CL Loss ($4100) 10 CL Loss ($50,700) YM $34 binary call option. Loss, but no further info. Jack