Surfer Alerts

marketsurfer · Apr 14, 2013

Quote from JackR:

Reading back over this thread I saw many comments about the Crude (CL) trade. T

Jack
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Very close, Jack. However, you are not including the 600 point profit on 10 YM contracts in January on my closed journal= aprox $32,000 +
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ight=special situation journal&pagenumber=314

surf

Daring · Apr 14, 2013

Quote from JackR:

Reading back over this thread I saw many comments about the Crude (CL) trade. There appear to be three other positions open in addition to the CL position. MarketSurfer did not provide prices or position size so I assumed all positions were opened on Monday April 1st. In each case I assumed an entry price of the day's (H-L)/2. I also assumed that each position size was in the $25,000 to $50,000 range and then picked a number of shares that was easy to multiply by. No commissions or margin costs are included or estimated.

If all the positions were opened based on Price Drivers then PD's don't look too good. So far - five losers and two winners (open and closed positions). However, the sample is small at this time.

Current Positions

Herbalife (HLF)-- Short.....Used 4/01 (H-L)/2 = $37.25. 1000 shares

4/1 Short = 37.25 = $37,250
4/12 Close = 37.38 = $37.380 Down $130

Fifth Street Financial (FSC) -- Long...Used 4/01 (H-L)/2 = 11.01 5000 shares
FSC went ex-dividend on 4/11/13 $.096 so adjusted cost basis to $10.91

4/1 Long 10.91 = $54,550
4/12 Close 10.76 = $53,800 Down $750

Educational Realty Trust(EDR) -- Long Used 4/01 (H-L)/2 = 10.47 5000 shares

4/01 Long 10.47 = $52,350
4/12 Close 11.00 = $55,000 Up $2,650

Crude Oil May Contract -- Long $94.97 10 Contracts

4/3 Long 94.97 = $947,700
4/12 Close 90.72 = $907,200 Down $40,500

Total Open Positions P/L = Down $38,730

All Closed Positions as of 4/12:

10 CL Loss ($4100)

YM $34 binary call option. Loss, but no further info.

Jack
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Ughhhh, disgusting trading.

All the elements of bad trading are present, too much hoping, adding to losers, stop too big because of no skills whatsoever on how to enter.

Has all the characteristics of a newbie.

Real sad stuff, stick to writing this is not for you.

JackR · Apr 14, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:
Very close, Jack. However, you are not including the 600 point profit on 10 YM contracts in January on my closed journal= aprox $32,000 +
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ight=special situation journal&pagenumber=314
surf
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Surf:

I trade CL and noticed this thread. Researching for my post took a bunch of work. I see the closed thread you referenced has over 500 pages. I'm not going to research that one as it looks like significantly more work. I'll just stick with the trades you posted/will post here. I'm sure all of us have had very impressive winners and losers over our time in the markets. But, I'll treat this thread the way I test my own trading ideas - pick a start date after backtesting/verifying that an idea has worked in the past and see how it works in the real world. So I'll just continue tracking you from the 1st of April.

Jack

marketsurfer · Apr 14, 2013

Quote from JackR:

Surf:

I trade CL and noticed this thread. Researching for my post took a bunch of work. I see the closed thread you referenced has over 500 pages. I'm not going to research that one as it looks like significantly more work. I'll just stick with the trades you posted/will post here. I'm sure all of us have had very impressive winners and losers over our time in the markets. But, I'll treat this thread the way I test my own trading ideas - pick a start date after backtesting/verifying that an idea has worked in the past and see how it works in the real world. So I'll just continue tracking you from the 1st of April.

Jack
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Ok, clearly its your perogative how you wish to evaluate any trading system. Thanks for the effort. surf

Lucrum · Apr 14, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:
04-12-13 10:54 AM

Looks like CL may be bottoming here on the 5 mnute chart-- says my PA read--- price will not drop below 90.50 per surfer price action read LOL!!
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It already has.

In fact your 89.90 bail point has been breached as well.

Xspurt · Apr 14, 2013

Quote from Xspurt:

I posted the fundamentals but it was deleted by a bully mod cop. Perhaps he thought it was a slight on surf but it was not intended that way. Reserves are hitting historic levels and if they break oil will probably tank. Winter use is dropping and there is a move into natural gas that is further diminishing demand.

Technically the really simple major MA - PA cross signals that a lot of money rightly or wrongly follows has given bearish signals so technically and fundamentally this was considered a heavy market.

That doesn't mean you can't buck the general consensus and that is something I usually do, but if you do buck the broad market opinion, you need to have early evidence you are right or get out of the position before you get run over by something very big and nasty. Hanging in on an opinion is bad trading. Hanging in because the system says so is not the same as you have to play your system.

If we hit the lows we might get a bounce before it goes lower, or if surf is right it will continue up. We might have a black swan but you can't try to play that or you'll go mad with all the noise about what might happen and when.

Widen your stop surf, get an ice bucket and a few beers (no wine, your trading is not posh enough for that) and put your feet up as the next few hours could be very interesting
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I hope you widened that stop

Lucrum · Apr 14, 2013

Assuming smurf bailed where he said he would. That's - $50,700 + commissions.

Xspurt · Apr 14, 2013

Quote from Lucrum:

Assuming smurf bailed where he said he would. That's - $50,700 + commissions.
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Okay he's on the deck on this one but when we take his prior profits into account he's only down $17,000'ish year to date.

Easily recovered with a few big wins and he'll have lots of time to focus now that the institutions will not be queuing up to buy the exclusive rights to surf's PD's just yet.

slumdog · Apr 15, 2013

Quote from Xspurt:

Okay he's on the deck on this one but when we take his prior profits into account he's only down $17,000'ish year to date.

Easily recovered with a few big wins and he'll have lots of time to focus now that the institutions will not be queuing up to buy the exclusive rights to surf's PD's just yet.
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Do you have a YTD trade log so we can verify this claim?

The two closed CL trades on this thread means he is down $55,000 on them.

There was also a YM trade which surf mentions he closed at loss at the start of this journal (post 1), i tracked down from this previous journal:

Short YM june @14430--- 5 contracts

Anyone know where he took the loss on that one?

Anyways lets maintain a full audit trail of his closed out calls on this thread going forward:

04-03-13 Long CL 10 contracts @ 95.36 stops @94.95 -- Stopped out for loss of -$4,100
04-03-13 Long CL 10 contracts @ 94.97 stops @89.90 -- Stopped out for loss of -$50,700

Current journal realised PnL = -$54,800 + commissions

For full transparency Surfer needs to state his size, entry prices and timestamps for the other trades he mentions he has open at the start of this journal:

Herbalife-- Short
Fifth Street Financial -- Long
Educational Realty Trust-- Long

Xspurt · Apr 15, 2013

Quote from slumdog:

Do you have trade log so we can verify that. If he was profitable in his previous journal why did he close it?

The two closed CL trades on this thread means he is down $55,000 on them.

There was also a YM trade which surf mentions he closed at loss at the start of this journal, i tracked down:

Short YM june @14430--- 5 contracts
Anyone know where he took the loss on that one?

Anyways lets maintain a full audit trail of his closed out calls on this thread going forward:

Long CL 10 contracts @ 95.36 stops @94.95 -- Closed for loss of -$4,100
Long CL 10 contracts @ 94.97 stops @89.90 -- Closed for loss of -$50,700

For full transparency Surfer needs to state his size, entry prices and timestamps for the other trades he mentions he open in this journal:

Herbalife-- Short
Fifth Street Financial -- Long
Educational Realty Trust-- Long
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Good questions. Yeah there are gaps in the journals for some reason when there is a loser and I was just going by JackR's figures, which could be well out.

Perhaps surf would like to confirm the exact position or the journal will be a bit foggy.

But even if he's down twice that at $34,000 one big winner will put a smile on the bottom line. He's very confident PD's are up to the job so let's see.